Explore Mets vs Braves Expert Picks and Betting Tips – 9/24/24

New York Mets

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the New York Mets at Truist Park on September 24, 2024, both teams find themselves in the thick of the National League East race. The Mets currently hold a slight edge with an 87-69 record, while the Braves are not far behind at 85-71. With postseason implications on the line, this series opener promises to be a crucial battle.

On the mound, the Braves will start Spencer Schwellenbach, who has been impressive this season with a 3.61 ERA and a spot as the 27th best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Schwellenbach’s ability to limit earned runs could be pivotal against a potent Mets lineup that ranks 8th in MLB for overall offense. Meanwhile, Luis Severino will take the ball for the Mets. Despite a respectable 3.79 ERA, Severino is considered below average in the Power Rankings, and his projection to allow 2.7 earned runs might give the Braves an edge.

Offensively, the Braves boast significant power, ranking 4th in home runs, and they will be looking to capitalize on Severino’s vulnerability. Matt Olson has been red-hot over the past week, posting a .450 batting average with four home runs, and will be a key figure in Atlanta’s lineup. The Mets, however, are not to be underestimated, with Francisco Alvarez also in fine form, hitting .357 with three homers in his last five games.

The Braves are slight betting favorites, with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the Braves even more, projecting a 60% chance of victory. With both teams vying for playoff positioning, expect a tightly contested game with playoff-like intensity.

New York Mets Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to league average, Luis Severino has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 3.6 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Tyrone Taylor has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 92.6-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 87.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Spencer Schwellenbach will hold the platoon advantage over 7 opposing hitters in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Despite posting a .399 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Marcell Ozuna has been lucky given the .052 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .347.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Michael Harris II hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 90 of their last 146 games (+33.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• New York Mets – Run Line +1.5 (-165)
  The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 55 of their last 96 games (+16.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Mark Vientos has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+9.50 Units / 57% ROI)