Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
(-120/+100)+140
As we head into July 11, 2024, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Seattle Mariners at Angel Stadium for the first game of their series. The Angels, sitting at 38-54, have struggled this season, while the Mariners, with a 51-43 record, are having an above-average year. This American League West matchup will feature a pitching duel between two right-handers: Jack Kochanowicz for the Angels and Luis Castillo for the Mariners.
Kochanowicz, ranked as the 246th-best starting pitcher in MLB, has had a tough season. He projects to pitch just 4.8 innings on average today, allowing 2.9 earned runs, 5.4 hits, and 1.3 walks— all indicators of a rough outing ahead. On the other hand, Castillo, ranked 40th, has been solid with a 3.72 ERA and a 7-9 win/loss record over 19 starts. He projects to go 5.8 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.7 batters.
The Angels’ offense, ranked 22nd overall, has had its share of struggles, despite ranking 8th in stolen bases and 14th in home runs. Their best hitter this season, Taylor Ward, has contributed 14 home runs in 89 games. Recently, Logan O’Hoppe has been hot, hitting .308 with a .956 OPS over the last week. The Mariners’ offense has been even worse, ranking 28th overall and dead last in batting average. However, Julio Rodriguez has been a bright spot, leading the team with 18 home runs and 110 stolen bases on the season. Rodriguez has also been scorching hot over the last week, hitting .438 with a 1.408 OPS.
Both teams’ bullpens have been liabilities, with the Angels ranked 30th and the Mariners 27th. This could lead to some late-game fireworks, especially given the average game total of 8.5 runs.
The Mariners are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -165, implying a 60% win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also gives them a 60% chance to win. With Castillo on the mound and the Angels’ struggles this season, the Mariners look poised to take the first game of the series.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Luis Castillo’s fastball spin rate has decreased 114 rpm this season (2173 rpm) below where it was last year (2287 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
- Mitch Haniger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)Mitch Haniger has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (62% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Projected catcher Cal Raleigh grades out as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+145)Jack Kochanowicz is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.4% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #10 HR venue in the majors — in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Luis Guillorme – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Luis Guillorme may have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Los Angeles Angels – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in the majors.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+9.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-130)The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Ty France – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+12.50 Units / 83% ROI)