Explore Expert Picks and Betting Line for Yankees vs Guardians – October 19, 2024

New York Yankees

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees prepare to face off on October 19, 2024, in Game 5 of their tightly contested American League Championship Series matchup, all eyes will be on the mound. The Guardians, hosting at Progressive Field, are turning to right-hander Tanner Bibee, who has been effective this season, ranking 41st among starting pitchers. Despite his solid ERA of 3.47, Bibee faces a tall task against a potent Yankees lineup, ranked 3rd best, that excels in power with the 2nd most home runs in MLB.

The Guardians, although average offensively with a 17th rank, bring a strong bullpen into play, ranked 1st, which could be pivotal in this series. On the other side, the Yankees will start Carlos Rodon, a left-hander who has been solid with a 16-9 record and a 3.96 ERA. Facing a Guardians lineup with impressive home run capabilities, ranked 10th, Rodon will need to navigate carefully.

Kyle Manzardo has been the standout performer for Cleveland over the past week, boasting a .364 batting average and an impressive 1.091 OPS. Meanwhile, for the Yankees, Giancarlo Stanton has been red-hot, hitting three home runs over his last four games and posting a 1.210 OPS.

While betting markets give the Yankees a slight edge with a -130 moneyline, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests a 54% win probability for the Guardians. This discrepancy indicates potential value in backing Cleveland, especially with their bullpen strength and Bibee’s ability to suppress walks, potentially mitigating the Yankees’ patience at the plate. As both teams vie for a pivotal victory, this matchup promises to be a thrilling encounter with postseason implications.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Given that groundball batters struggle against groundball pitchers, Carlos Rodon (40.8% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 GB hitters in the opposing team’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Cleveland’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Austin Wells, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-135)
  The best projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the New York Yankees.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Tanner Bibee in the 85th percentile among all starting pitchers in the majors.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Andres Gimenez is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen ranks as the best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 76 games (+14.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 84 away games (+18.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Austin Wells has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+10.85 Units / 63% ROI)