Explore Expert Picks and Betting Line for Brewers vs Athletics – August 24, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Oakland Athletics

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face the Oakland Athletics on August 24, 2024, both teams are coming off a decisive matchup the previous day, where the Brewers trounced the Athletics 11-3. Currently, the Brewers sit in good standing with a record of 74-54, positioning themselves well in the playoff race, while the Athletics are struggling at 55-74, showcasing a season that has not gone as planned.

In this Interleague matchup, the Athletics are projected to start Joe Boyle, who has had a turbulent season. Despite a strong last outing on August 19, where he pitched six shutout innings, Boyle’s ERA of 6.21 suggests he has been less than reliable overall. In contrast, the Brewers will send out Colin Rea, who boasts a solid 3.52 ERA and a much better record of 11-4 this year. Rea’s ability to keep runs off the scoreboard is crucial against an Athletics offense that ranks 22nd in MLB efficiency.

Even though Boyle has shown flashes of brilliance, he struggles with walks (16.5 BB%) and now faces a Brewers lineup that ranks 3rd in drawing walks. This match-up heavily favors the Brewers, as their offense ranks 10th overall and 5th in batting average, compared to the Athletics’ 27th ranking in team batting average.

Interestingly, while betting markets have set the Athletics’ moneyline at +100 with an implied win probability of 48%, projections suggest they actually have a 52% chance of winning. This discrepancy indicates potential value for bettors looking to capitalize on the Athletics’ underdog status, particularly given their strong offensive power despite overall poor season numbers. With the series on the line, this game is crucial for both teams, making for an engaging contest on the horizon.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-120)
  Among all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Jackson Chourio has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (61% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Joe Boyle – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
  Recording 12.6 outs per game per started this year on average, Joe Boyle checks in at the 1st percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Brent Rooker has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.1-mph average to last season’s 94.9-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Oakland Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics’ bullpen projects as the 9th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Run Line +1.5 (-155)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+9.25 Units / 13% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 119 games (+10.30 Units / 7% ROI)
• Tyler Nevin – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)
  Tyler Nevin has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 28% ROI)