Explore Blue Jays vs Angels Expert Picks and Betting Tips – 8/12/24

Toronto Blue Jays

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Los Angeles Angels

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to take on the Toronto Blue Jays on August 12, 2024, the two teams are looking to turn around disappointing seasons. The Angels sit at 52-66, while the Blue Jays are slightly better at 54-64. With both teams struggling, this matchup isn’t just another game; it’s a chance for either side to find some momentum in a tight race for improvement.

Davis Daniel, projected to start for the Angels, has had a rocky season, currently holding a 1-3 record with an unsightly 6.04 ERA. However, his xFIP of 3.92 indicates that he may be due for a turnaround. Meanwhile, Bowden Francis will be taking the mound for the Blue Jays, facing his own challenges with a 5.44 ERA. The projections suggest both pitchers could struggle, particularly with Daniel expected to allow 2.9 earned runs and Francis projected to give up 2.8.

Offensively, the Angels rank 24th in MLB, with their best hitter over the last week being Zach Neto, who has been on a tear with a .370 batting average and 10 RBIs in six games. The Blue Jays’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has also been solid, boasting a .381 batting average during the same span, but the team ranks just 20th overall in offense.

Despite their poor records, betting markets see this as a close contest, with both teams set at -110 on the moneyline and an over/under of 9.0 runs. With both starting pitchers struggling and the offenses ranked among the league’s worst, fans can expect a battle where every run counts. The Angels, bolstered by Neto’s recent performance, may just have the edge needed to steal a win on their home turf.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Bowden Francis is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #9 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Ernie Clement – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Ernie Clement has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.8-mph dropping to 81.8-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Mickey Moniak is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Toronto (#1-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Logan O’Hoppe pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.3% — 82nd percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Run Line +1.5 (-170)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 34 games at home (+9.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 52 games (+18.50 Units / 32% ROI)
• Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Logan O’Hoppe has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games (+7.25 Units / 112% ROI)