Explore Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Brewers vs Nationals – August 4, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers

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Washington Nationals

As the Milwaukee Brewers visit Nationals Park on August 4, 2024, for their series finale against the Washington Nationals, both teams are looking to solidify their standings. The Brewers currently sit with a solid record of 62-48, positioning themselves for a potential playoff run. On the other hand, the Nationals are languishing with a record of 50-61, marking this season as below average for them.

In their last matchup on August 3, the Nationals emerged victorious with a 6-4 win, showcasing a spark of offense that has been lacking this season. Notably, Nationals pitcher Mitchell Parker, projected to take the mound in this game, pitched well in his last start, going 5 innings with only 2 earned runs. However, Parker has struggled overall, ranking as the 180th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, and carrying a 5-6 record this year.

Meanwhile, the Brewers will counter with Tobias Myers, who has been impressive with a 3.10 ERA. Although he has been lucky this season, with a higher xFIP of 4.03, Myers has consistently delivered, contributing to the Brewers’ strong offensive ranks—currently 9th best in MLB. The Brewers also possess a dynamic lineup led by Willy Adames, who has made significant contributions with 17 home runs and 12 stolen bases.

With the game total set at 9.0 runs, the projections suggest a competitive matchup, favoring the Brewers to score around 5.09 runs while the Nationals are expected to tally approximately 4.35 runs. Despite the struggles, the Nationals will look to build off their recent victory and leverage home-field advantage. Ultimately, the contrasting trajectories of these two teams will be on full display as the Brewers aim to capitalize on their strong season against a floundering Nationals squad.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-130)
  Out of every team on the slate today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155)
  Joey Ortiz’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 87.8-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 77-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  William Contreras has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Mitchell Parker is projected to throw 83 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 9th-least of all pitchers today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Keibert Ruiz is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#1-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+110)
  The 2nd-weakest projected offense of the day in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the Washington Nationals.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 58 of their last 101 games (+9.40 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 85 games (+7.90 Units / 9% ROI)
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-210)
  William Contreras has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+13.55 Units / 40% ROI)