Explore Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Blue Jays vs Rays – September 21, 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

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Tampa Bay Rays

As we gear up for another American League East clash, the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays meet for the second game of their series on September 21, 2024, at Tropicana Field. Both teams have had underwhelming seasons, with the Rays holding a 76-78 record and the Blue Jays trailing at 73-81. Currently, neither team is in contention for the playoffs. The Rays claimed a narrow 1-0 victory over the Blue Jays in their last outing, showcasing the strength of their bullpen, which ranks 3rd in the Power Rankings despite their overall struggles.

The pitching matchup features Tampa Bay’s Taj Bradley, ranked as the 74th-best starter in the big leagues, against Toronto’s Yariel Rodriguez, who has struggled with a 1-6 record. Bradley’s 4.39 ERA this year might look average, but his 3.66 xFIP suggests he’s been dealt a rough hand, hinting at potential improvement. Meanwhile, Rodriguez, sporting a comparable 4.29 ERA, stands on shakier ground with a poor 19-start streak and projections that indicate a tough road ahead.

Offensively, the Rays rank near the bottom in batting average and home runs, placing them 26th in MLB. However, they excel in swiping bags, ranking 4th in stolen bases. On the flip side, the Blue Jays’ offense sits at league average, ranking 15th, but they struggle with the long ball, ranking 25th in home runs. Despite the team’s offensive woes, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a standout, maintaining a .322 batting average with 30 home runs and a team-best 0.948 OPS this season.

The betting markets have the Rays as modest favorites with a -135 moneyline, implying a 55% win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees this as a tight contest, giving the Rays a slight edge with a 52% chance to take the game. With a total of just 7.5 runs, another low-scoring affair could be on the horizon.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Yariel Rodriguez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Over his last 3 starts, Yariel Rodriguez has experienced a notable fall off in his fastball spin rate: from 2366 rpm over the entire season to 2252 rpm in recent games.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  In the past 7 days, Spencer Horwitz’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.8% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Toronto ranks as the #3 offense in baseball when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (16.4% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Taj Bradley has averaged 92.7 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 78th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Jose Siri’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 87.5-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 77.6-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 81 games (+16.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-180)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 41 away games (+8.20 Units / 13% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+160/-205)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the RBIs Over in 23 of his last 48 games (+10.95 Units / 23% ROI)