Explore Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Blue Jays vs Rays – September 21, 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the American League East matchup continues, the Tampa Bay Rays host the Toronto Blue Jays at Tropicana Field on September 21, 2024. Both teams are out of the divisional race, with the Rays holding a 76-78 record, which is marginally better than the Blue Jays’ 73-81 mark. The Rays took the first game of this series, providing a slight boost to their confidence and momentum.

The pitching duel features Taj Bradley for the Rays, a right-hander ranked #74 among MLB starting pitchers, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his 6-11 record and 4.39 ERA, his 3.66 xFIP suggests that he’s been a bit unlucky this season and might be poised for better performances. The projections show him pitching 5.5 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, and striking out 5.8 batters on average — all signs of a solid outing.

On the Blue Jays’ side, Yariel Rodriguez takes the mound. While his 1-6 record and 4.29 ERA indicate a challenging season, he does project to allow just 2.1 earned runs over 4.6 innings, which shows potential for damage control. However, his tendency to allow 3.9 hits and 1.9 walks per game could be areas of concern, especially against a Rays offense that, despite being ranked 26th overall, is strong in stolen bases at 4th.

From an offensive standpoint, Toronto’s lineup stands average in batting average but struggles with power, ranking 25th in home runs. In contrast, the Rays’ offense is lackluster, ranking 27th in both batting average and home runs. Yet, Jose Siri has been a bright spot for Tampa Bay with a .400 average and a 1.200 OPS over the past week. The Rays’ bullpen, ranked 3rd, gives them an additional edge over the Blue Jays’ 26th-ranked relief squad.

With the Rays holding a slight edge in projected win probability, backed by THE BAT X, and the betting markets aligning with a 55% implied probability, this game could hinge on Bradley’s ability to capitalize on the Blue Jays’ offensive weaknesses. Meanwhile, Toronto will aim to exploit any shortcomings in Tampa Bay’s lineup against Rodriguez’s flyball tendencies.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Yariel Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Over his last 3 starts, Yariel Rodriguez has experienced a notable fall off in his fastball spin rate: from 2366 rpm over the entire season to 2252 rpm in recent games.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Leonardo Jimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Leo Jimenez has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 9.1% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 19.2% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Taj Bradley has averaged 92.7 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 77th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ben Rortvedt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Ben Rortvedt’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 86.1-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 79-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 81 games (+16.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-185)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 41 away games (+8.20 Units / 13% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+10.15 Units / 19% ROI)