Expert Player Predictions for White Sox vs Reds – Thursday, May 15, 2025

Chicago White Sox

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Cincinnati Reds

On May 15, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Chicago White Sox at Great American Ball Park for the third game of their interleague series. Both teams have struggled this season, with the Reds holding a record of 20-24 and the White Sox at 14-29. The Reds are currently projected to start Nick Martinez, who has been slightly above average with a 4.23 ERA and a Power Rankings position of 72nd among approximately 350 pitchers. In contrast, Bryse Wilson, the White Sox’s projected starter, has had a rough go this year, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB with a 4.88 ERA.

In their last game, the Reds managed to edge out the White Sox, continuing their trend of inconsistency. With the Reds’ offense ranking 14th overall, they have shown flashes of potential, particularly in stolen bases where they rank 4th. However, their batting average sits at a low 21st, indicating room for improvement.

The matchup favors the Reds significantly, as they face a White Sox offense that ranks dead last in the league, struggling with a 30th rank in batting average and home runs. This puts Nick Martinez in a prime position to capitalize on the White Sox’s offensive woes. Additionally, while Martinez projects to allow 2.7 earned runs and pitch 5.5 innings, Wilson is projected to struggle, allowing 3.4 earned runs over just 4.6 innings.

With the Reds being a strong betting favorite at -220, they have an implied team total of 5.32 runs, reflecting confidence in their ability to exploit the weaknesses of the White Sox. As the game approaches, it will be interesting to see if the Reds can build on their last win and take advantage of a struggling opponent.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Bryse Wilson – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  With 6 hitters who bat from the same side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Bryse Wilson figures to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Andrew Vaughn has been hot lately, whalloping 2 dingers in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-most strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Chicago White Sox with a 24.3% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-220)
  Nick Martinez has recorded a .324 BABIP this year, making him one of the unluckiest hurlers in the game on balls in play with better performance likely coming.
  Explain: Casual fans and the mainstream media don’t realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Elly De La Cruz are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryse Wilson.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 6.9% Barrel% of the Cincinnati Reds ranks them as the #28 squad in the majors this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 53% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 away games (+8.55 Units / 37% ROI)
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.05 Units / 29% ROI)