Expert Player Predictions for Rockies vs D-Backs – Friday, May 16, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On May 16, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Colorado Rockies in what promises to be an intriguing National League West matchup at Chase Field. This game comes on the heels of contrasting fortunes in their last outings, with the Diamondbacks edging the San Francisco Giants 8-7 and the Rockies suffering a 8-3 defeat to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Currently, the Diamondbacks are sitting at 23-21, showing an above-average performance this season, while the Rockies are struggling mightily with a dismal 7-36 record. Arizona’s offensive prowess ranks 3rd in MLB, highlighted by their power as they sit 4th in home runs. The Diamondbacks’ best hitter has been on fire, posting a 1.248 OPS over the last week and contributing significantly with 4 home runs during that stretch.

On the mound, Arizona will send Corbin Burnes to the hill. Burnes is enjoying a solid season, with a 2.95 ERA and a Power Ranking placing him as the 35th best starting pitcher in MLB. While he projects to allow 5.1 hits today, his last start on May 10 showcased his potential as he threw 7 innings of shutout ball. He’ll be facing a Rockies lineup that has struggled all year, ranking 29th in offensive performance and leading the league in strikeouts.

The projections favor Arizona heavily, with a significant moneyline of -410, reflecting their strong position against a beleaguered Rockies team. Given the Diamondbacks’ offensive strengths and Burnes’ capabilities, this matchup could tilt heavily in Arizona’s favor, making them a team to watch as they aim to build momentum in this series.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+260)
  Carson Palmquist is an extreme flyball pitcher (42% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #29 HR venue in the majors in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Ryan McMahon has made big gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 13.1% seasonal rate to 25% over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Brenton Doyle hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Corbin Burnes has relied on his cut-fastball 7.7% more often this season (52.7%) than he did last year (45%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  This season, Eugenio Suarez has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98.1 mph compared to last year’s 92.6 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks (19.6 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy team of batters of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -1.0 (-170)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 42 games (+15.70 Units / 29% ROI)
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-155/+120)
  Michael Toglia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+8.35 Units / 34% ROI)