Expert Player Predictions for Padres vs White Sox – Sunday, September 21, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Chicago White Sox

The San Diego Padres will face off against the Chicago White Sox on September 21, 2025, in a game that carries significant weight for both teams. The Padres are currently holding onto a strong position in the playoff race with an 84-71 record, while the White Sox are languishing at 58-97, having endured a rough season.

In their previous outing, the Padres secured a victory against the White Sox, further solidifying their standing as a postseason contender. The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Sean Burke for the White Sox and Michael King for the Padres. Burke, ranked as the 250th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has struggled this season with a 4-10 record and an ERA of 4.29. His projections indicate a challenging outing, with an average of 4.6 innings pitched and 2.8 earned runs allowed.

On the other hand, Michael King comes in as a much more reliable option, ranking 46th among starting pitchers. King has a solid 4-3 record with a commendable ERA of 3.84. While his projections suggest he may allow 2.4 earned runs and pitch around 5.6 innings, he stands to give the Padres a significant edge in this matchup.

Offensively, the Padres hold the advantage, ranking 19th overall in MLB this season, compared to the White Sox’s troubling 28th place. The projections indicate that the Padres are expected to score 4.53 runs, while the White Sox’s implied team total is just 3.47 runs. With the Padres’ best hitter in fine form recently, boasting a .346 batting average and a 1.178 OPS over the last week, the White Sox will need a strong performance from Burke to keep the game competitive.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Michael King – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+160/-210)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Michael King is projected to throw 70 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-least of all pitchers on the slate today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Ramon Laureano has been lucky this year, putting up a .367 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .332 — a .035 gap.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the San Diego Padres with a 19.1% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)
  Sean Burke has had some very good luck with his ERA this year; his 4.29 mark is quite a bit lower than his 5.10 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  In the last week, Lenyn Sosa’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.7% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Chicago White Sox hitters collectively grade out 26th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 28.9% rate of hitting their flyballs and line drives 100+ mph.
  Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.5 (-110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 65 of their last 107 games (+12.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 79 of their last 141 games (+13.60 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+380/-580)
  Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 games (+19.00 Units / 211% ROI)