Expert Player Predictions for Mets vs White Sox – Friday, August 30, 2024

New York Mets

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Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the New York Mets on August 30, 2024, they find themselves in a difficult position, currently holding a record of 31-104. This season has been challenging for the White Sox, who rank 30th in the league in overall offense, batting average, and home runs. In stark contrast, the Mets are enjoying a more successful campaign at 70-64, positioning themselves as a competitive team in the National League.

In their last outing, the White Sox faced a tough defeat, while the Mets are coming off a strong performance, showcasing their offensive prowess. The matchup features two right-handed pitchers, Jonathan Cannon for the White Sox and Tylor Megill for the Mets. Cannon, who has struggled this season with a 2-8 record and a 4.57 ERA, is projected to allow 3.0 earned runs and strike out 3.3 batters on average. Meanwhile, Megill, despite being a below-average pitcher, has shown potential with a 4.23 xFIP, indicating he may have been unlucky this year.

The White Sox’s weaknesses at the plate could be further exploited by Megill, who is a high-walk pitcher facing a team that has been patient at the plate, ranking 2nd least in walks drawn. On the other hand, the Mets’ offense ranks 11th overall and 4th in home runs, giving them a significant edge in this matchup.

Interestingly, projections indicate that the White Sox might have a better chance than their odds suggest, with a projected win probability of 41%. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a potentially high-scoring affair. As both teams look to capitalize on their strengths, the Mets appear to have the upper hand, but the White Sox could surprise if they find a way to break through offensively.

New York Mets Insights

• Tylor Megill – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Tylor Megill has gone to his four-seamer 5.7% less often this season (50%) than he did last year (55.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Mark Vientos has been very fortunate this year. His .368 mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .317.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game’s 5th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+150)
  Jonathan Cannon conceded a colossal 5 earned runs in his last GS.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Nicky Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Nicky Lopez is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+180)
  The Chicago White Sox projected offense ranks as the 3rd-worst of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 29 games (+4.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-210)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 69 games (+9.65 Units / 10% ROI)
• Francisco Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  Francisco Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 79% ROI)