Expert Player Predictions for Marlins vs White Sox – Friday, May 09, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox will host the Miami Marlins on May 9, 2025, at Guaranteed Rate Field in an Interleague matchup. Both teams are struggling this season, with the White Sox sitting at 10-28, while the Marlins are not far behind at 14-22. The White Sox offense has been particularly disappointing, ranking 29th in MLB in both team batting average and home runs. In their last game, the White Sox were shut out, losing 10-0, while the Marlins fell 10-1, further highlighting their recent struggles.

On the mound, Bryse Wilson is projected to start for the White Sox. Wilson has had a rough season, with a 0-1 record and an ERA of 5.56, ranking him as the 304th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. He has been particularly prone to allowing hits, projected to give up 5.6 hits on average today. In his last outing, Wilson pitched 5 innings, allowing 4 earned runs, which did little to inspire confidence.

Max Meyer will take the hill for the Marlins, boasting a better season with a 3.92 ERA and a ranking of 88th among starting pitchers. Despite a rocky last start where he allowed 5 earned runs, Meyer’s projections suggest he is likely to perform better against a weak White Sox lineup. The Marlins offense, while average overall, does have potential with their best hitter performing well recently.

With the game total set low at 7.5 runs, and the White Sox being underdogs with a moneyline of +125, there’s a chance for the Marlins to capitalize on their pitching advantage. The projections indicate that the Marlins may have the upper hand in this matchup, making them an intriguing option for bettors.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  Max Meyer is an extreme groundball pitcher (47.6% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #7 HR venue among all major league parks — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Bats such as Jesus Sanchez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Bryse Wilson who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Dane Myers, Connor Norby).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Bryse Wilson has been lucky in regards to his ERA since the start of last season; his 4.31 rate is quite a bit lower than his 5.34 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Matt Thaiss – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Matt Thaiss is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-120)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games (+5.35 Units / 27% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 33 games (+8.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-205)
  Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+12.45 Units / 47% ROI)