Expert Player Predictions for Marlins vs Rockies – Thursday, September 18, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face the Miami Marlins on September 18, 2025, both teams are looking to bounce back from their last encounter, where the Rockies fell 8-4. With the Rockies struggling at 41-111 this season, their chances of turning things around appear slim, especially against a Marlins team that, while below average at 72-80, has shown more consistency.

On the mound, Tanner Gordon takes the hill for the Rockies, projected to pitch 4.9 innings while allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs. Despite a recent strong outing where he went 6 innings with just 1 earned run and 9 strikeouts, Gordon’s overall performance this season has been underwhelming, ranking as the 244th best starting pitcher in MLB. His low strikeout rate could be a concern against a Marlins offense that is not particularly strikeout-prone.

On the other side, Sandy Alcantara, who ranks 51st among starting pitchers, is expected to deliver a solid performance, projecting 5.6 innings with 3.2 earned runs allowed. Alcantara’s recent form includes a commendable outing of 7 innings pitched with 2 earned runs and 8 strikeouts. His ability to exploit the Rockies’ high strikeout rate—ranking 2nd in MLB—could give Miami a significant edge.

Offensively, the Rockies rank a dismal 27th in MLB, struggling to generate runs, while the Marlins sit at a more respectable 18th. The Rockies’ best hitter has been heating up, boasting a .476 batting average over the last week, which could provide a glimmer of hope. However, with the Marlins projected to score 5.62 runs based on current odds, they are favored to take this matchup. The game total is set at a high 10.0 runs, indicating expectations for a potentially high-scoring affair.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+155/-205)
  Sandy Alcantara has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 4.9 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Graham Pauley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
  Graham Pauley is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Miami Marlins are expected to record the 2nd-most runs (5.89 on average) on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Tanner Gordon – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Tanner Gordon has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 53% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Kyle Karros – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Kyle Karros has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.8-mph dropping to 80.1-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Colorado Rockies have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ryan Ritter, Ezequiel Tovar, Jordan Beck, Hunter Goodman).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 87 of their last 149 games (+17.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-170)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 away games (+16.30 Units / 34% ROI)
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-110/-120)
  Hunter Goodman has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+6.65 Units / 64% ROI)