Expert Player Predictions for Mariners vs Astros – Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Seattle Mariners

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Houston Astros

As the Seattle Mariners visit the Houston Astros on September 25, 2024, fans are in for a crucial American League West matchup. The Astros, sitting at an 86-72 record, have had an above-average season, while the Mariners, at 81-77, have been more middle-of-the-road. With playoff implications on the line, both teams are vying for every win as the season winds down.

Seattle’s George Kirby, ranked as the 20th best starting pitcher, will take the mound against Houston’s Yusei Kikuchi, who ranks 64th. Kirby, with a 13-11 record and a solid 3.60 ERA, has been a reliable force for the Mariners. His ability to limit walks (2.9 BB%) could be tested against the Astros, who rank 4th for least walks in MLB. Kikuchi, meanwhile, has shown potential for improvement with a 4.19 ERA and an xFIP of 3.23, indicating some bad luck this season. His high strikeout rate (27.8 K%) matches up well against the Mariners, who lead the league in strikeouts.

Offensively, the Astros boast the 9th best lineup, with standout performances in batting average (3rd) and home runs (10th). Kyle Tucker has been particularly hot, posting a .409 average and a 1.382 OPS over the last week. In contrast, the Mariners have struggled, ranking 22nd overall and 29th in batting average, though Julio Rodriguez has been a bright spot, hitting .371 with a 1.046 OPS recently.

Houston’s bullpen, ranked 5th, could play a decisive role, especially against a Mariners’ bullpen ranked 23rd. Despite being underdogs with a +120 moneyline and a 44% implied win probability, the advanced projections give the Astros a 42% chance of winning, suggesting a tightly contested game at Minute Maid Park.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  George Kirby’s 95.4-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 88th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Julio Rodriguez has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.5-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 91.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Mitch Garver pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Yusei Kikuchi has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 3.4 more adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jake Meyers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.325) provides evidence that Jake Meyers has had bad variance on his side this year with his .286 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The underlying talent of the Houston Astros projected batting order today (.308 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit worse than their .320 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 152 games (+15.25 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 44 away games (+12.60 Units / 26% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+9.05 Units / 19% ROI)