Expert Player Predictions for Guardians vs White Sox – Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Cleveland Guardians

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Chicago White Sox

On September 10, 2024, the Chicago White Sox will host the Cleveland Guardians at Guaranteed Rate Field for the second game of their series. The Guardians currently sit in a strong position with an 82-62 record, while the White Sox struggle at 33-112, marking one of the worst seasons in recent memory. In their last match-up, Cleveland bested Chicago by a score of 5-3, continuing the White Sox’s disappointing trend.

Chicago’s projected starting pitcher, Jonathan Cannon, has had a tough year, ranked as the 272nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Although Cannon’s ERA is an average 4.53, his projections indicate he may struggle today, with a low strikeout rate against a Guardians offense that ranks as the 17th best in the league. Meanwhile, the Guardians will counter with Ben Lively, who has fared better this season with an 11-9 record and a solid 4.07 ERA.

Despite Lively’s high flyball rate, which could be an issue against a White Sox team that has produced the fewest home runs this season, the Guardians still hold an edge. Their offense, while not dominant, has shown the ability to generate runs consistently. Furthermore, according to the leading MLB projection system, the Guardians are expected to score 4.94 runs on average today, compared to the White Sox’s projected 3.80 runs.

Betting odds currently show the White Sox as heavy underdogs at +200, reflecting a low implied team total of 3.20 runs. However, there may be value in betting on the White Sox, as the projections suggest a higher probability of victory than the market indicates. With the Guardians’ strong bullpen ranked 5th in MLB and the White Sox’s ranked 30th, this game could further highlight the disparity between these two teams as they continue their respective seasons.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-225)
  Among all the teams in action today, the best infield defense is that of the Cleveland Guardians.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Steven Kwan has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 15.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is inflated compared to his 5.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Jonathan Cannon – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Jonathan Cannon projects to strikeout 3.2 hitters today, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Nicky Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Nicky Lopez is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Korey Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Korey Lee ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.05 Units / 24% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 59 away games (+14.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)
  Luis Robert has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 43 games (+10.80 Units / 21% ROI)