Expert Player Predictions for Giants vs Phillies – Thursday, April 17, 2025

San Francisco Giants

@

Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies host the San Francisco Giants on April 17, 2025, they find themselves in a critical matchup after a tough loss yesterday, where they fell 11-4 to the Giants. With both teams showcasing strong records—Philadelphia at 10-8 and San Francisco at 13-5—this game is pivotal in the early season standings.

Cristopher Sanchez is projected to take the mound for the Phillies, bringing a solid profile as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. He has shown promise with a 1-0 record and a great ERA of 3.12. However, his 4.12 FIP indicates he may have been a bit fortunate, suggesting a potential regression in performance. Sanchez’s high strikeout rate of 26.0% could play a significant role against the Giants, who have struggled with strikeouts this season, ranking 6th in the league.

On the other side, Jordan Hicks is projected to start for the Giants. Although he has a decent 1-1 record, his ERA is concerning at 5.87, and he was hit hard in his last outing, giving up 7 earned runs over just 4 innings. Despite this, projections suggest he may perform better than his ERA indicates, thanks to an xFIP of 4.17.

Offensively, the Giants boast a stronger lineup, ranking 8th in MLB, while the Phillies sit at 11th. However, Philadelphia’s offense has the potential to capitalize on Hicks’s struggles, especially given their implied team total of 4.64 runs for this game.

With a high stakes atmosphere, the Phillies are favored to win, and they will look to bounce back from yesterday’s defeat and leverage their home-field advantage in this crucial series matchup.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Jordan Hicks – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Jordan Hicks’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (69.5 compared to 55.9% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Willy Adames has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.2-mph average to last year’s 93.6-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The San Francisco Giants have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Sam Huff, Mike Yastrzemski, Tyler Fitzgerald).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Among all starting pitchers, Cristopher Sanchez’s fastball velocity of 95.1 mph is in the 84th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Johan Rojas tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Jordan Hicks.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Run Line -1.5 (+105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 80 games at home (+1.30 Units / 1% ROI)
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.40 Units / 39% ROI)