Expert Picks and Betting Line for Pirates vs D-Backs – Sunday July 28th, 2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates prepare for their showdown on July 28, 2024, at Chase Field, both teams come into the game with differing levels of momentum. The Diamondbacks, currently holding a 55-50 record, are having an above-average season and sit comfortably above the .500 mark. The Pirates, with a 52-52 record, are hovering around mediocrity. This game, the third in their series, carries significant weight for both clubs as they jockey for playoff positioning in the National League.

The Diamondbacks claimed victory in their last outing, defeating the Pirates 9-5 on July 27. Arizona’s offense, ranked 9th in MLB, showcased their prowess with a strong performance, led by Ketel Marte. Marte has been on fire over the last week, sporting a .364 batting average and a 1.362 OPS, including four home runs and 11 RBIs in his last six games. The Pirates, on the other hand, have struggled offensively, ranking 27th overall. Despite Rowdy Tellez’s solid week, during which he posted a .357 batting average and a 1.080 OPS, the Pirates’ bats have largely been silent.

On the mound, Arizona will start Yilber Diaz, who has had a rough season. Diaz, ranked 214th among approximately 350 starting pitchers, sports a 5.40 ERA but has been somewhat unlucky according to his 4.74 FIP, suggesting he may improve. Unfortunately, he is coming off a disastrous outing where he allowed seven earned runs in just three innings. He’ll face Mitch Keller, who has been a bright spot for Pittsburgh with a 10-5 record and a strong 3.34 ERA. However, Keller’s peripherals hint at regression, as indicated by his 4.06 xFIP.

Interestingly, betting markets currently have the Diamondbacks as slight favorites with a -115 Moneyline, translating to an implied win probability of 51%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Arizona with a 58% win probability, highlighting potential betting value on the Diamondbacks.

With the Diamondbacks’ potent offense and a bullpen ranked 6th in MLB, contrasted against the Pirates’ anemic offense and their 8th-ranked bullpen, Arizona appears well-positioned to take advantage in this matchup. Keep an eye on Yilber Diaz’s performance as he looks to bounce back, and whether Ketel Marte can continue his torrid hitting streak.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Mitch Keller’s 2410-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 80th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Josh Palacios – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Josh Palacios’s average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 88.4-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 82.3-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  In today’s matchup, Andrew McCutchen is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.7% rate (88th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Yilber Diaz – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-175)
  Yilber Diaz has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 8.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Kevin Newman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Kevin Newman has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .292 mark is quite a bit higher than his .251 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Yilber Diaz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jose Herrera (the D-Backs’s expected catcher today) profiles as a horrible pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 48 games (+13.10 Units / 25% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 69 games (+10.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• Connor Joe – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-185)
  Connor Joe has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+7.40 Units / 36% ROI)