Examine the Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – Saturday, July 27, 2024

New York Yankees

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Boston Red Sox

One of the most storied rivalries in baseball continues as the Boston Red Sox host the New York Yankees on July 27, 2024, for the second game of their series at Fenway Park. Both teams are in the thick of the American League East race, so this matchup holds significant weight. The Yankees, sitting at 60-45, are having a good season, while the Red Sox, with a 55-47 record, are also having an above-average year.

The Red Sox come into this game on a high note, having edged out the Yankees 9-7 in yesterday’s contest. Boston’s bats were alive, and they’ll look to carry that momentum into today’s game. Kutter Crawford will take the mound for the Red Sox, sporting a 3.33 ERA and a 6-8 record over 21 starts. While Crawford ranks as the 65th-best starting pitcher in the MLB according to Power Rankings, his underlying metrics suggest some regression is due. His 4.12 xFIP indicates he has benefitted from some good fortune this season.

On the other side, the Yankees will counter with Marcus Stroman, who has a solid 3.51 ERA and a 7-5 record in 20 starts. Despite his respectable ERA, Stroman’s 4.68 xFIP suggests he might have also been somewhat lucky. Both pitchers have projections that lean towards allowing a fair number of hits and earned runs, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring affair.

Boston’s offense, ranked 4th in batting average and 4th overall, will look to exploit Stroman’s low strikeout rate. The Red Sox’s power hitters like Jarren Duran and Tyler O’Neill, who has been hot over the last week with 4 home runs and a 1.375 OPS, could present problems for Stroman.

Conversely, Kutter Crawford’s high-flyball tendencies could spell trouble against a Yankees lineup that ranks 2nd in home runs. Aaron Judge continues to be a force, with a .306 batting average and 36 home runs this season. Juan Soto’s recent surge, including a .360 average and 3 home runs in the last week, bolsters New York’s potent offense.

Both teams have their weaknesses in the bullpen, with Boston’s relief corps ranked 28th and New York’s 20th in Power Rankings. This could be crucial in a close game, especially given the 9.5 run Game Total set by the betting markets.

Despite the betting markets slightly favoring the Red Sox with a moneyline of -120 and an implied win probability of 52%, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees this as a true toss-up with a 50% win probability for both teams. Given the Yankees’ offensive firepower and the vulnerabilities in both bullpens, this game promises to deliver plenty of excitement.

New York Yankees Insights

• Marcus Stroman – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Marcus Stroman has averaged 93.6 adjusted pitches per start this year, ranking in the 85th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Aaron Judge’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 101.9-mph figure last season has lowered to 99.6-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The 10.6% Barrel% of the New York Yankees grades them out as the #1 offense in the majors this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Kutter Crawford – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Kutter Crawford’s curveball percentage has decreased by 6.5% from last season to this one (12.1% to 5.6%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Batters such as Wilyer Abreu with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Marcus Stroman who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Jarren Duran has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 44 games (+9.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games (+12.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+610/-1200)
  Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 28 games (+25.10 Units / 90% ROI)