Examine the White Sox vs Royals Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – Friday, July 19, 2024

Chicago White Sox

@

Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals will host the Chicago White Sox on July 19, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium in an American League Central matchup. The Royals, having an above-average season with a 52-45 record, are poised to take on the struggling White Sox, who sit at a dismal 27-71. This series opener features two right-handed pitchers: Michael Wacha for the Royals and Chris Flexen for the White Sox.

Michael Wacha, ranked #75 among starting pitchers by the leading MLB projection system THE BAT X, has had a decent season with a 3.83 ERA over 16 starts. Despite a middling 6-6 Win/Loss record, Wacha’s ability to limit runs and strike out batters at an average rate gives Kansas City a solid chance. THE BAT X projects Wacha to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, while striking out 5.1 batters on average in this game.

Chris Flexen, on the other hand, has struggled mightily with a 4.82 ERA and a 2-8 Win/Loss record across 18 starts. The projections don’t look favorable for Flexen, as he’s expected to allow 3.2 earned runs and strike out only 3.0 batters over 5.1 innings. Given the Royals’ low strikeout offense, which ranks 2nd least in MLB, Flexen’s low strikeout rate could spell trouble.

Offensively, the Royals rank 15th in overall performance, bolstered by a 7th place ranking in stolen bases and an 11th in batting average. Their power numbers are average, ranking 17th in home runs. Meanwhile, the White Sox have been abysmal at the plate, ranking 30th overall, 29th in batting average, and 28th in home runs.

Kansas City comes into this game as a heavy favorite with a moneyline of -205, implying a 65% win probability. Given the White Sox’s struggles and Flexen’s poor projections, the Royals’ implied team total of 4.96 runs seems attainable. This game sets up well for Kansas City to capitalize on their advantages and start the series on a high note.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chris Flexen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Chris Flexen’s 90.7-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 10th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Luis Robert has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 14.4% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Chicago White Sox have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Luis Robert, Paul DeJong, Korey Lee).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-195/+150)
  Michael Wacha projects to average 1.5 walks in this game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Freddy Fermin – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Freddy Fermin’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 88.1-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 83.8-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Kansas City Royals hitters as a group have been one of the best in the majors this year (5th-) when it comes to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Run Line -1.5 (-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 43 games at home (+7.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 44 away games (+8.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-155)
  Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+14.80 Units / 41% ROI)