Examine the Rangers vs Guardians Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – Sunday, August 25, 2024

Texas Rangers

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Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians will host the Texas Rangers in the third game of their series on August 25, 2024. The Guardians currently hold a solid record of 74-55, positioning themselves firmly in the playoff race, while the Rangers sit at 60-70, struggling to find their footing this season. In their last matchup on August 24, the Guardians dominated the Rangers with a commanding 13-5 victory.

Cleveland’s starting pitcher, Matthew Boyd, is projected to take the mound. Although Boyd ranks as the 82nd best starting pitcher in MLB, he boasts a strong ERA of 3.38 this season. However, his xFIP of 4.92 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate, hinting at potential regression. Boyd’s last outing was uneventful, as he allowed three earned runs over five innings, striking out two batters and walking four.

On the other side, Cody Bradford, the Rangers’ starter, has been impressive with a 4-1 record and a 3.56 ERA this season, ranking 85th among MLB starters. Bradford’s last start saw him pitch seven innings, giving up three earned runs while striking out eight, showcasing his ability to limit damage.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 18th in MLB, but their recent performance has been bolstered by standout players like Jose Ramirez, who has been crucial this season with 33 home runs and 30 stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Rangers’ offense ranks 25th, indicating significant struggles. Projections indicate that the Guardians are expected to score around 4.30 runs, while the Rangers are projected at 4.47 runs, suggesting a competitive matchup despite Cleveland’s recent dominance. With the Guardians’ strong bullpen ranked 13th and the Rangers’ impressive bullpen ranked 3rd, fans can expect a tightly contested game.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Cody Bradford – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Cody Bradford has a large reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 6 opposite-handed batters in this matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Wyatt Langford has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (58% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-130)
  The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the strongest among all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• David Fry – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  David Fry has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1-mph dropping to 78.7-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-130)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 51 games at home (+8.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 27 away games (+12.60 Units / 43% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+100/-130)
  Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+10.10 Units / 22% ROI)