Cleveland Guardians
Los Angeles Dodgers
(-110/-110)-150
As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on September 6, 2024, both teams are looking to bounce back after disappointing losses in their last outings. The Dodgers fell to the Angels 10-1, while the Guardians lost to the Royals 4-1. This matchup marks the first game in a series between two teams with solid records, as the Dodgers sit at 84-56 and the Guardians at 80-60.
The Dodgers boast the 3rd best offense in MLB, highlighted by their impressive power with 139 home runs this season. Their exceptional batting lineup is led by Shohei Ohtani, who has been a standout performer throughout the year. In contrast, Cleveland’s offense ranks 17th overall, indicating a more average performance at the plate.
On the mound, the Dodgers are projected to start Landon Knack, who has a 3.00 ERA this season but ranks as the 209th best starting pitcher, indicating potential struggles ahead. Knack’s projections suggest he may allow 2.6 earned runs over an average of 4.6 innings, which could be a challenge against a powerful Dodgers lineup. Meanwhile, the Guardians will counter with Matthew Boyd, who has been more effective with a 2.38 ERA and ranks 67th among starting pitchers. Boyd’s ability to limit walks could play a crucial role in this matchup, especially against a Dodgers team that excels at drawing them.
According to the leading MLB projection system, the Dodgers are favored with a projected win probability of 59%. They are expected to score an average of 5.78 runs, while the Guardians are projected to score around 5.05 runs. With the Dodgers’ potent offense and Boyd’s recent form, this game promises to be an intriguing contest as both teams look to regain momentum.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Matthew Boyd’s fastball spin rate has fallen 152 rpm this year (2351 rpm) below where it was last season (2503 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
- Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Bo Naylor has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 7.1% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past 7 days.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Bo Naylor (the Guardians’s expected catcher today) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)Landon Knack is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #4 HR venue in the league today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Shohei Ohtani has seen a big gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.3-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 95.3-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The 9.2% Barrel% of the Los Angeles Dodgers grades them out as the #4 team in the majors this year by this standard.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 79 games (+11.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 31 away games (+9.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)Shohei Ohtani has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 47 games (+13.45 Units / 20% ROI)