Examine the Dodgers vs Angels Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – Tuesday, September 03, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Los Angeles Angels

On September 3, 2024, the Los Angeles Angels host the Los Angeles Dodgers in the first game of an interleague series at Angel Stadium. The Angels come into this matchup with a disappointing record of 57-80, while the Dodgers are riding high at 83-55. The two teams are on opposite ends of the performance spectrum, with the Angels having a rough season and the Dodgers enjoying a strong push toward the postseason.

In their last outings, the Angels managed a tight 3-2 victory against the Mariners, snapping a streak of struggles, while the Dodgers cruised to an 11-6 win over the D-Backs, showcasing their offensive power. This game will feature two starting pitchers with contrasting seasons: Reid Detmers for the Angels and Walker Buehler for the Dodgers. Detmers has struggled with a 6.14 ERA and a modest win-loss record of 3-6, while Buehler has had his own challenges with a 5.88 ERA and a 1-4 record. Despite Detmers’ high xFIP of 4.14, indicating potential for better outcomes, he faces a daunting task against a potent Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB in home runs, having hit 139 this season.

Interestingly, projections suggest that the Angels could exceed expectations, with an average projected run total of 4.90, while the Dodgers are estimated to score 6.11 runs. Additionally, the projections identify value in betting on the Angels as they may outperform the current market perception. Given their recent efforts and with Detmers looking to turn his season around, this game might just provide some drama amidst the overall narrative of the playoff-bound Dodgers and struggling Angels.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Among all starting pitchers, Walker Buehler’s fastball velocity of 94.6 mph is in the 81st percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Max Muncy is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-180)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense grades out as the best of the day in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Reid Detmers – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
  Reid Detmers has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 3.2 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Logan O’Hoppe has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.3-mph to 97.9-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 77 games (+6.20 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 72 games (+11.30 Units / 14% ROI)
• Miguel Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-135/+105)
  Miguel Rojas has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.35 Units / 50% ROI)