Dodgers vs Mets Betting Guide – 10/18/24

Los Angeles Dodgers

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers clash at Citi Field on October 18, 2024, anticipation is running high for this pivotal Game 5 in their National League Championship Series matchup. With the Dodgers holding the 1st rank in MLB offense and the Mets sitting comfortably at 9th, spectators are in for a thrilling showdown.

The Mets are pegged as underdogs in this contest, boasting an implied win probability of 44% with a moneyline of +115. They face a Dodgers team projected to win with a 56% likelihood, according to current betting odds. With the series tied, and both teams eyeing a crucial lead, the Mets are banking on David Peterson, ranking 116th in starting pitchers, to counter the Dodgers’ powerful lineup. Despite Peterson’s stellar 2.90 ERA, there’s concern over a high 4.10 xFIP that hints at potential regression, which could spell trouble against the Dodger’s MLB-best home run hitters.

On the mound for Los Angeles, Jack Flaherty brings his above-average prowess—ranked 69th among starters—with a strong 3.17 ERA. His ability to limit walks could nullify a key strength of the Mets, who rank 6th in drawing walks. Facing off against a Mets team with an impressive 4th ranking in home runs, Flaherty aims to keep the ball in the park and the Mets in check.

With the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, forecasting tight performances from both pitchers, Flaherty’s ability to strike out 6.2 batters on average today might play a pivotal role. The Mets, offensively strong yet challenged against elite pitching, will need Mark Vientos to maintain his hot streak, demonstrated by a .278 average and two homers in the last week.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+135/-170)
  Jack Flaherty will hold the platoon advantage over 7 opposing hitters in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Max Muncy is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of New York (#2-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Mookie Betts hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – Moneyline (+115)
  The New York Mets outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Starling Marte is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The New York Mets (22.6% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the most strikeout-heavy group of batters of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (+115)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 105 games (+17.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 97 games (+24.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+370/-570)
  Mark Vientos has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 20 games (+10.45 Units / 52% ROI)