Los Angeles Dodgers
Miami Marlins
(-120/+100)+190
On May 7, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at LoanDepot Park for the third game in their series. The Marlins are currently struggling with a record of 14-21, while the Dodgers boast a strong 24-12 record. This matchup highlights a significant contrast in team performance, as the Dodgers rank as the 2nd best offense in MLB, while the Marlins sit at 17th.
In their previous game on May 6, the Marlins managed to edge out the Dodgers with a narrow 5-4 victory. Despite this win, Miami’s season has been characterized by inconsistency, particularly in their pitching staff, which ranks dead last in the league according to advanced statistics. Valente Bellozo, projected to start for the Marlins, holds a 0-2 record with an ERA of 4.97 this year, indicating below-average performance. The projections suggest he may struggle again today, averaging 4.6 innings pitched and allowing 2.8 earned runs.
Conversely, Landon Knack of the Dodgers, despite having a rough start to the season with a 7.27 ERA, is projected to perform better than his current stats indicate. His xFIP of 5.00 suggests he has faced some misfortune, and he could turn a corner against a Marlins offense that, while averaging decently, may not provide enough support against a potent Dodgers lineup that has hit 58 home runs this season.
With the game total set at a high 10.0 runs, betting lines favor the Dodgers significantly, reflecting their strong form and the Marlins’ ongoing struggles. Miami’s best hitter has shown flashes of brilliance recently, but it may not be enough to overcome a Dodgers team that is primed for success.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Landon Knack – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Landon Knack has gone to his change-up 7% more often this season (22.4%) than he did last year (15.4%).Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Shohei Ohtani has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98.8-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 96.4-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-225)The best projected lineup of the day in terms of overall batting ability is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Valente Bellozo – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Among all starters, Valente Bellozo’s fastball velocity of 89.3 mph grades out in the 3rd percentile since the start of last season.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Hitters such as Dane Myers with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Landon Knack who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Miami Marlins – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen ranks as the worst among all the teams in the league.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 34 games (+9.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 3.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games (+3.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Michael Conforto has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.60 Units / 48% ROI)