Dodgers vs D-Backs Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 8/30/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chase Field on August 30, 2024, both teams are vying for crucial wins in a tightly contested National League West. The Diamondbacks currently hold a record of 76-58, while the Dodgers sit at 80-54, making this matchup significant for both teams as they look to solidify their playoff positions.

In their most recent outing, the Diamondbacks fell short against the San Diego Padres, while the Dodgers enjoyed a successful game against the San Francisco Giants, showcasing their offensive prowess. The Diamondbacks are projected to start Zac Gallen, who has had a solid season with a 10-6 record and a respectable ERA of 3.65. However, he faces a tough challenge against the Dodgers’ ace, Clayton Kershaw, who, despite a rough start to the season with a 2-2 record, has an impressive 2.89 FIP, indicating he has been somewhat unlucky.

The projections indicate that the Diamondbacks’ offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB, will be tested against the Dodgers, who boast the 4th best offense. The Diamondbacks have excelled in batting average, ranking 7th, but their home run output ranks only 16th, which could hinder their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities against Kershaw.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, both teams are expected to keep it close. The Diamondbacks’ current moneyline is +105, reflecting their underdog status, while the Dodgers are at -125. However, the projections suggest that the Diamondbacks could score around 4.18 runs, which may not be enough to outpace the Dodgers’ projected 4.75 runs. As these two rivals clash, fans can expect an exciting matchup filled with playoff implications.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Clayton Kershaw – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Out of all starters, Clayton Kershaw’s fastball velocity of 89.4 mph grades out in the 6th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Will Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (92% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-140)
  The 2nd-best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen will “start” for Arizona Diamondbacks today but will be treated as more of an opener and may not last more than a couple innings.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Josh Bell has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.3-mph dropping to 77.8-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 86 games (+21.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 60 games (+7.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+320/-470)
  Shohei Ohtani has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 31 games (+9.50 Units / 31% ROI)