Dodgers vs Astros Best Bets and Expert Picks – Sunday July 28, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers are set for the series finale at Minute Maid Park on July 28, 2024. In a series that has showcased some tight contests, the Astros edged out a 7-6 victory over the Dodgers yesterday, establishing momentum for the home team. As it stands, the Dodgers are having a great season with a 62-44 record, while the Astros are also above average at 55-49.

Both teams will send right-handed pitchers to the mound, with Spencer Arrighetti starting for Houston and River Ryan for Los Angeles. Arrighetti, who has struggled this season with a 5.65 ERA, is ranked #194 among MLB starting pitchers, making him one of the weaker starters in the league. Despite his 4-8 win/loss record, his xFIP of 4.44 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve going forward. Contrastingly, Ryan has only made one start this year and, while his ERA is an immaculate 0.00###102, his xFIP of 6.04 indicates he has likely been fortunate and is due for regression.

The Astros’ offense, ranking 9th best overall and 2nd in team batting average, poses a significant threat. Yordan Alvarez, their standout performer, boasts a .300 batting average and a .924 OPS this season. Over the last week, Alvarez has been particularly hot, hitting .409 with a 1.277 OPS. The Dodgers, however, feature the league’s top-rated offense, led by Shohei Ohtani, who has a .318 batting average and a 1.051 OPS, alongside 32 home runs.

Betting markets have the Astros favored at -135, implying a 55% win probability matching the projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. With the Dodgers set at +115 and a 45% implied win probability, the game is expected to be close. The Astros’ ability to avoid strikeouts (3rd least in MLB) may neutralize Ryan’s low strikeout rate, giving Houston a slight edge in this tightly contested matchup.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Gavin Lux is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen projects as the 9th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Spencer Arrighetti has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game on balls in play this year with a .350 BABIP and ought to see that luck normalize going forward.
  Explain: Casual fans and the mainstream media don’t realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Yordan Alvarez has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.8-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 93.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 78 games (+14.55 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 28 games (+2.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 49 games (+25.95 Units / 26% ROI)