Dive Into the Simulation and Insights for Yankees vs White Sox Match Preview – August 29, 2025

New York Yankees

@

Chicago White Sox

As the New York Yankees prepare to take on the Chicago White Sox on August 29, 2025, the stakes are clear. The Yankees sit comfortably in the playoff hunt with a record of 74-60, while the White Sox languish near the bottom of the standings at 48-86. Following their recent matchup, where the Yankees secured a 10-4 victory, the momentum is firmly in New York’s favor.

On the mound, the Yankees will send Carlos Rodon to the rubber. With a standout ERA of 3.24 and a Win/Loss record of 14-7 this season, Rodon ranks as the 67th best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his above-average capabilities. He projects to pitch an average of 5.6 innings today and allows 2.4 earned runs, indicating a solid performance is expected. In his last start on August 24, Rodon went six innings, surrendering just two earned runs, further affirming his strong recent form.

Conversely, the White Sox will counter with Yoendrys Gomez, who has struggled this season, holding a record of 3-1 and an average ERA of 4.73. Gomez ranks 210th among MLB starters, hinting at his difficulties. His projections suggest he’ll average just 4.3 innings pitched today, allowing 2.8 earned runs, which could spell trouble for Chicago.

Offensively, the Yankees are firing on all cylinders, boasting the 1st best offense in MLB and leading with 228 home runs. On the flip side, the White Sox rank a dismal 28th in overall offensive production. Given these contrasting performances and the statistical advantages for the Yankees, it’s no surprise that they are hefty favorites heading into this matchup.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Carlos Rodon’s fastball velocity has decreased 2 mph this season (93.6 mph) below where it was last season (95.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Ben Rice has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.6-mph to 97.9-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Ben Rice pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Yoendrys Gomez – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  Yoendrys Gomez has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 9.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (36.0) implies that Colson Montgomery has had some very good luck this year with his 50.9 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Chicago White Sox have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Colson Montgomery, Timothy Elko, Michael A. Taylor).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (+110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 56 games at home (+16.60 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+10.25 Units / 39% ROI)
• Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+520/-900)
  Colson Montgomery has hit the Home Runs Over in his last 4 games (+15.45 Units / 386% ROI)