Dive Into the Simulation and Insights for White Sox vs Rangers Match Preview – July 24, 2024

Chicago White Sox

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Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers and Chicago White Sox are set to face off on July 24, 2024, at Globe Life Field in the third game of their series. The Rangers, currently holding a 49-52 record, have had an average season but are coming off a narrow 3-2 victory over the White Sox in their last outing. The White Sox, on the other hand, are enduring a dismal season with a 27-76 record and are still reeling from their loss to the Rangers on July 23.

Nathan Eovaldi is projected to take the mound for the Rangers. Eovaldi, a right-handed pitcher, has been solid this season with a 6-4 record and a 3.36 ERA. Despite his recent struggles, including a rough outing on July 19 where he allowed 6 earned runs over 5 innings, Eovaldi remains a reliable arm. His peripheral indicators, such as a 3.89 FIP, suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, but he still ranks as the #73 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Chris Flexen will start for the White Sox. Flexen has had a tough season, posting a 2-9 record with a 5.22 ERA. His last start was equally troubling, as he gave up 7 earned runs over 5 innings on July 19. Flexen’s projections for today are not promising, with an expected 5.1 innings pitched and 3.0 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, the Rangers have struggled, ranking 23rd in MLB. Marcus Semien has been a bright spot, leading the team with 14 home runs and 52 RBIs. Over the last week, Nate Lowe has been the Rangers’ best hitter, boasting a .267 batting average and a .888 OPS. The White Sox, however, have the worst offense in MLB, ranking 30th in overall performance. Andrew Vaughn has been their standout player, while Tommy Pham has been their best hitter over the last week with a .316 batting average.

The Rangers are massive favorites with a current moneyline of -280, reflecting a 71% implied win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects the Rangers to score 5.09 runs on average, compared to the White Sox’s 3.53. With Eovaldi on the mound and the White Sox’s offensive woes, the Rangers are poised to take another win in this series.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chris Flexen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Chris Flexen’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (61.8% compared to 54.5% last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Eloy Jimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Over the last two weeks, Eloy Jimenez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.1% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen grades out as the worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Nathan Eovaldi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Out of all SPs, Nathan Eovaldi’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph is in the 82nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Marcus Semien’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 86.9-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 82.9-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Josh H. Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Josh Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 84 games (+14.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+7.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+610/-1200)
  Nate Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 22 games (+13.40 Units / 61% ROI)