Chicago White Sox
San Francisco Giants
(-110/-110)-235
The San Francisco Giants will host the Chicago White Sox in an interleague matchup on August 19, 2024, at Oracle Park. The Giants (63-63) are having an average season, while the White Sox (30-95) are struggling with a dismal record, ranking as the worst team in Major League Baseball. This game marks the first in a series between these two teams, and the Giants are looking to capitalize on the White Sox’s poor performance.
In their last game, San Francisco had a solid outing, continuing their trend of competitive play despite an inconsistent season. The Giants are projected to start Kyle Harrison, who has a Win/Loss record of 6-5 and an ERA of 4.14 this year. However, his xERA of 4.85 suggests he may not be as effective as his current numbers indicate, leading to concerns about his performance against a weak White Sox lineup. Harrison’s high flyball rate (37 FB%) could work in his favor, as Chicago has hit only 90 home runs this year, ranking 3rd least in MLB, limiting their power potential.
On the other side, Jonathan Cannon is set to take the mound for Chicago. With a Win/Loss record of 2-6 and an ERA of 4.02, Cannon also appears to have benefitted from some good fortune, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.70. His below-average strikeout projection of 4.0 and a concerning 1.8 walks per game could further compound the White Sox’s issues, especially against a Giants offense that ranks 14th in MLB.
With the Giants’ bullpen ranking 1st in MLB, the odds are stacked against the White Sox, who possess the 30th-ranked bullpen. Given these matchups and the current betting odds favoring the Giants at -230, they are in a strong position to secure a victory in this matchup. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting a competitive but manageable scoring expectation.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+160)Jonathan Cannon projects to average 2.83 earned runs in this matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
- Corey Julks – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)Corey Julks is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)Lenyn Sosa has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Kyle Harrison – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)With 8 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Kyle Harrison will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Michael Conforto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)Michael Conforto’s average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 89.4-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 72.1-mph in the past week’s worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The San Francisco Giants have 5 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Fitzgerald, Heliot Ramos, Mike Yastrzemski, Grant McCray, Matt Chapman).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+7.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+120/-155)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 away games (+7.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- Patrick Bailey – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)Patrick Bailey has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.15 Units / 52% ROI)