Dive Into the Simulation and Insights for Reds vs Twins Match Preview – September 13, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

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Minnesota Twins

On September 13, 2024, the Minnesota Twins host the Cincinnati Reds at Target Field for the first game of their interleague series. Currently, the Twins sit at 78-68, boasting an above-average season, while the Reds struggle with a 71-77 record, reflecting a disappointing campaign. With both teams looking to make a statement, the matchup holds significance as they attempt to finish the season strong.

In their last outings, the Twins triumphed over the Angels with a score of 6-4 on September 11, showcasing their offensive capabilities. Bailey Ober, projected to start for the Twins, is coming off a dominant performance in which he pitched a complete game shutout on September 7, allowing no earned runs and striking out seven batters. His current season record stands at 12-6, and he ranks as the 36th best starting pitcher in MLB, which suggests a favorable matchup against Cincinnati’s Julian Aguiar, who has struggled, posting an ERA of 5.06 and ranking among the league’s weaker pitchers.

The Twins’ offense ranks 11th best in MLB, showing capability with a decent batting average and an impressive home run total, while the Reds rank 16th overall. Notably, Elly De La Cruz has been a highlight for the Reds, demonstrating power with 23 home runs and a solid OPS of .812. However, with the Reds’ offense hitting only .226 this season, they face challenges against Ober’s strong performance metrics.

As for projections, the leading MLB projection system estimates the Twins to score an average of 5.75 runs today, while the Reds are expected to contribute around 4.47 runs. With a high implied team total of 4.99 runs for the Twins, they enter as the betting favorites at -210, indicating confidence from oddsmakers in their ability to secure the win in this crucial matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+200)
  The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the worst among every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Jake Fraley may have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Bailey Ober – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-195/+150)
  Recording 17.2 outs per start this year on average, Bailey Ober ranks in the 77th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Matt Wallner is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Cincinnati (#1-worst of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• The Minnesota Twins have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 56 games at home (+10.10 Units / 15% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line +1.5 (-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 78 of their last 136 games (+11.40 Units / 6% ROI)
• Tyler Stephenson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Tyler Stephenson has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 30 games (+13.25 Units / 22% ROI)