Dive Into the Simulation and Insights for Phillies vs Twins Match Preview – July 23, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Minnesota Twins

On July 23, 2024, the Minnesota Twins host the Philadelphia Phillies at Target Field for the second game of their Interleague series. Both teams are playoff contenders, with the Phillies boasting an impressive 63-37 record while the Twins have a solid 55-44 mark. Today’s matchup features a pitching duel between the Twins’ Simeon Woods Richard and the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler.

Woods Richard, who has a 3.51 ERA this season, has been somewhat fortunate based on his 4.30 xFIP, suggesting a potential decline in performance going forward. Despite this, he carries a 3-1 record across 16 starts. In contrast, Wheeler has been excellent with a 2.70 ERA and a 10-4 record over 19 starts. His 3.47 xFIP similarly indicates some good fortune, but his elite skill set remains constant.

The Twins own the 5th-best offense in MLB, excelling in batting average (5th) and home runs (7th). However, their low ranking in stolen bases (25th) reveals a one-dimensional attack. Meanwhile, the Phillies shine with the 3rd-best offense overall, excelling in batting average (3rd), home runs (6th), and stolen bases (4th).

The bullpens for both teams are strong, with the Phillies ranked 3rd and the Twins 5th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings. This difference is noteworthy given the Twins’ lesser year-to-date performance.

In yesterday’s game, Philadelphia’s Nick Castellanos continued his hot streak, maintaining a .333 batting average and a 1.108 OPS over the last week. He’s hit 1 home run and collected 5 hits in that span.

Betting odds favor the Phillies, with an implied win probability of 59% compared to the Twins’ 41%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Phillies at 56% and Twins at 44%, slightly closer than the betting odds suggest. A potential edge for bettors lies with the Twins if the game leans on their potent offense or Wheeler exhibits some of the regression his xFIP predicts. Ultimately, the game total set at 8.0 runs aligns with average expectations for a high-stakes, mid-season matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Zack Wheeler has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an extra 8.2 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Kyle Schwarber has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.6-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 93.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Simeon Woods Richard – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  As a result of his large reverse platoon split, Simeon Woods Richardson will have a tough matchup squaring off against 6 batters in the projected batting order who share the same handedness in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+120/-155)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.209) may lead us to conclude that Matt Wallner has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his .242 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Edouard Julien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Today, Edouard Julien is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 41.5% rate (98th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+9.00 Units / 66% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 54 of their last 83 games (+20.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+200/-265)
  Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 46 games (+16.05 Units / 26% ROI)