San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks
(+100/-120)+125
As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the San Diego Padres on August 6, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Diamondbacks are currently 54-59, struggling to find their footing this season, while the Padres boast a solid 62-51 record, positioning themselves well above average. This matchup is particularly intriguing as it marks the third game of a series where the Diamondbacks will look to capitalize on their home advantage at Chase Field.
In their last outing, the Diamondbacks faced the Padres and came up short, continuing their below-average streak. Arizona’s offense, ranking 4th best in MLB, will aim to exploit the struggles of Padres’ pitcher Nestor Cortes, who has been less than stellar with a 9.00 ERA this season. Cortes has struggled with walks, holding an 18.4% walk rate, which could play into the hands of the Diamondbacks, who rank 5th in MLB for drawing walks.
On the mound for Arizona is Anthony DeSclafani, who has had a rough year with a 4.91 ERA and a Power Ranking placing him 192nd among MLB starters. However, projections suggest he may have been unlucky this season, indicating potential for improvement. DeSclafani’s ability to limit runs will be crucial, especially facing a Padres offense that ranks 22nd in MLB, struggling to find consistent power with a 29th ranking in home runs.
Given the contrasting strengths of the Diamondbacks’ offense and the Padres’ pitching woes, Arizona could pull off an upset, especially considering their high implied team total of 4.41 runs compared to the Padres’ 5.09. With the game total set at a high 9.5 runs, fans can expect an engaging contest as both teams vie for a crucial win in this pivotal series.
San Diego Padres Insights
- San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-145)Among every team in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the San Diego Padres.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 87.9-mph figure last year has lowered to 85.7-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)In today’s matchup, Fernando Tatis Jr. is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.2% rate (98th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Anthony DeSclafani – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony DeSclafani to throw 75 pitches in this matchup (least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Blaze Alexander – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Extreme flyball batters like Blaze Alexander tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Nestor Cortes.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Arizona Diamondbacks today has an estimated true talent wOBA of .311, which is a fair amount lower than their actual wOBA of .329 this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 48 of their last 90 games (+12.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 113 games (+13.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.40 Units / 32% ROI)