Dive Into the Simulation and Insights for Orioles vs Red Sox Match Preview – August 19, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox will host the Baltimore Orioles on August 19, 2025, in a crucial American League East matchup. The Red Sox are currently holding onto a respectable record of 68-58, showcasing an above-average season, while the Orioles sit at 58-67, struggling with a below-average performance. In their last encounter, the Orioles secured a victory, defeating the Red Sox 6-3, marking a pivotal moment in the series as they look to build momentum.

Walker Buehler, projected to start for the Red Sox, has had a challenging season, with a 7-7 record and an ERA of 5.43. However, his 4.91 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky and could improve moving forward. In his last start on August 13, Buehler pitched 6 innings, allowing 4 earned runs. His high walk rate of 10.3% could be a factor against the Orioles, who rank as the 3rd least patient offense in MLB, potentially giving Buehler an advantage.

On the other side, Tomoyuki Sugano, with a record of 10-5 and a more favorable ERA of 4.13, is also struggling with consistency. He pitched well in his last outing, allowing just 1 earned run over 5 innings. However, his projections indicate he might face challenges against a Red Sox offense that ranks as the 6th best in MLB this season.

The Red Sox’s offense has been prolific, ranking 6th in batting average and 5th in stolen bases, while the Orioles sit at 22nd in overall offensive production. With the Red Sox’s bullpen rated 9th in MLB, they appear well-positioned to capitalize on their home-field advantage. As a betting favorite with a moneyline of -140, the Red Sox are projected to score an impressive 4.81 runs today, while the Orioles’ implied total stands at 4.19 runs. This matchup promises to be an intriguing battle as both teams vie for supremacy in the series.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Tomoyuki Sugano’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (66.8% this year) ought to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Alex Jackson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Alex Jackson has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.6-mph average to last year’s 93.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Baltimore Orioles have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Alex Jackson, Coby Mayo, Colton Cowser).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Walker Buehler’s 93.4-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.7-mph decline from last season’s 95.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Roman Anthony – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  As it relates to his home runs, Roman Anthony has been unlucky this year. His 10.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 22.0.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox’ bullpen grades out as the 8th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-145)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 69 games (+11.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 74 games (+14.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Nate Lowe has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 54% ROI)