Dive Into the Simulation and Insights for Mets vs White Sox Match Preview – August 31, 2024

New York Mets

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Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox host the New York Mets at Guaranteed Rate Field on August 31, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting circumstances. The White Sox, with a dismal record of 31-105, have already been eliminated from contention in their division. Meanwhile, the Mets carry a respectable 71-64 record and are positioned to compete for a Wild Card spot.

In their last outing, the Mets faced off against the White Sox, continuing their strong performance as they navigate the late-season stretch. While the White Sox have struggled mightily this season, their best hitter over the last week, Andrew Benintendi, has shown some life, recording seven hits and six RBIs in his last six games. However, the White Sox as a unit rank 30th in MLB in offense, batting average, and home runs, making it tough to expect significant production against a solid Mets pitching staff.

On the mound, Chicago is set to start Davis Martin, who, despite a commendable ERA of 2.96 this season, is ranked 268th among starting pitchers, indicating he has been fortunate. His 4.36 xFIP suggests he may be due for a regression, especially against a potent Mets offense that ranks 11th overall and is 4th in home runs with 132 this season. On the other side, New York’s Jose Quintana has had his ups and downs, boasting a 4.36 ERA but also showing signs of being lucky in his performances as indicated by his 4.88 xERA.

With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs set for this matchup, the Mets are favored, projecting a team total of 5.25 runs compared to the White Sox’s low 3.75 runs. Given the current trends and the offensive capabilities of both teams, the Mets appear well-positioned to take this contest.

New York Mets Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Jose Quintana will allow an average of 5.8 singles in this game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Mark Vientos has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.3-mph to 94.2-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Davis Martin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Davis Martin must realize this, because he has relied on his secondary pitches a lot this year: 72.6% of the time, grading out in the 97th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Miguel Vargas is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of New York (#1-worst on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Lenyn Sosa has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+2.30 Units / 14% ROI)
• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 79 games (+9.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-170)
  Gavin Sheets has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+11.60 Units / 72% ROI)