Dive Into the Simulation and Insights for Marlins vs Padres Match Preview – May 27, 2025

Miami Marlins

@

San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres will look to build on their recent success against the Miami Marlins in the second game of their series on May 27, 2025. The Padres triumphed in a nail-biter on May 26, winning 4-3, which marks their solid record of 30-22 this season. In contrast, the Marlins are struggling at 21-31, reflecting a challenging year thus far.

On the mound, the Padres are projected to start Stephen Kolek, who has had an impressive ERA of 2.84 this season despite ranking as the 176th best starting pitcher in MLB based on advanced stats. Kolek has a manageable workload, expected to pitch around 5.9 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs. However, his projections indicate he might face challenges with 5.6 hits and 1.4 walks allowed on average today.

Max Meyer will take the hill for the Marlins. Although he has a commendable ranking as the 89th best starting pitcher, his 4.15 ERA suggests he has been slightly unlucky this season. Meyer also faces a Padres lineup that ranks 15th overall in MLB, featuring a low strikeout rate—advantageous for a pitcher like Meyer who thrives on strikeouts.

With the Padres boasting the 3rd best bullpen in the league, they have a significant advantage in late-game situations. The Marlins, on the other hand, struggle with a 27th ranked bullpen, which could prove costly. Given the current betting odds favoring the Padres at -155 with an average implied team total of 4.11 runs, expectations are high for San Diego to pull off another victory in front of their home crowd at Petco Park.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-165)
  Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the San Diego Padres.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.35 Units / 68% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 57% ROI)