Dive Into the Simulation and Insights for Marlins vs Braves Match Preview – August 4, 2024

Miami Marlins

@

Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face off against the Miami Marlins on August 4, 2024, they will be looking to bounce back after a narrow 4-3 loss to the Marlins in their previous game. This matchup marks the fourth game in the series, and with the Braves currently holding a 60-50 record, they are having an above-average season. In contrast, the Marlins, with a dismal 41-70 record, continue to struggle.

Max Fried, projected to start for the Braves, is regarded as one of the elite pitchers in MLB, currently ranked 8th among starting pitchers. Fried’s impressive 3.08 ERA suggests he has been effective, although his 3.70 SIERA indicates he may have been a bit lucky this season. He’s projected to allow an average of just 1.6 earned runs today, showcasing his ability to limit scoring opportunities.

On the other hand, Edward Cabrera, the Marlins’ starter, has had a rough season with a 6.65 ERA. Despite showing some signs of improvement in his last outing, where he allowed only 2 earned runs over 5 innings, Cabrera’s overall performance has been below average, ranking him as a middle-of-the-road pitcher.

Offensively, the Braves rank 15th in MLB, with Marcell Ozuna leading the charge. Ozuna’s strong season includes 32 home runs and a .300 batting average. Meanwhile, the Marlins rank 29th in offense, struggling to generate runs consistently.

The projections favor the Braves significantly, with their high implied team total of 4.83 runs against the Marlins’ low 3.17. Given the Braves’ solid bullpen, ranked 6th in MLB, they look well-positioned to secure a victory in this critical matchup as they seek to regain momentum in the series.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
  Tallying 13 outs per outing this year on average, Edward Cabrera places him the 4th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Ali Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Ali Sanchez usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Fried.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jesus Sanchez, Cristian Pache, David Hensley).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Max Fried has a large reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 8 opposite-handed hitters in this matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Orlando Arcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Orlando Arcia has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (90% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen ranks as the 7th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 101 games (+27.55 Units / 25% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 38 away games (+13.15 Units / 30% ROI)
• Orlando Arcia – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Orlando Arcia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.90 Units / 60% ROI)