San Francisco Giants
Minnesota Twins
(-110/-110)-105
On May 10, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the San Francisco Giants at Target Field for the second game of their interleague series. The Twins enter this matchup with a record of 19-20, putting them in the middle of the pack as they look to turn their season around. Conversely, the Giants are enjoying a strong season at 24-15, currently holding a better position in the standings.
In their previous matchup, the Twins secured a 3-1 victory, giving them a confidence boost as they face the Giants again. Joe Ryan, ranked 19th among MLB starting pitchers, is projected to take the mound for the Twins. This season, he boasts an impressive 2.93 ERA and has shown flashes of brilliance, including a solid outing in his last start where he pitched 6 innings, allowing just 1 earned run with 8 strikeouts. However, his 3.44 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit lucky, suggesting potential for regression.
The Giants will counter with Logan Webb, who ranks 6th among MLB starters and has a stellar 2.61 ERA this season. Webb has also pitched well recently, going 7 innings with only 1 earned run in his last start. Both pitchers project to allow around 2.2 earned runs, making this a potential low-scoring affair, especially with the game total set at just 7.0 runs.
While the Twins’ offense ranks 20th in the league, their best hitter is currently on a tear, boasting a .409 batting average over the last week. The Giants, despite their overall strong record, struggle offensively as well, ranking 24th in batting average. Given the solid starting pitching and the favorable matchup for Ryan, the Twins may have a better shot than their +100 moneyline suggests, making them an intriguing option for bettors looking for value.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Logan Webb’s 2072-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 13th percentile out of all starters.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Mike Yastrzemski will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Matt Chapman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Matt Chapman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Joe Ryan – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Considering that groundball batters face a disadvantage against groundball pitchers, Joe Ryan (41.7% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 5 GB hitters in the opposition’s projected batting order.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Extreme groundball bats like Byron Buxton generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Webb.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Minnesota’s 11.5° launch angle (an advanced metric to measure the ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most groundball-inducing in baseball this year: #24 overall.Explain: A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.
Betting Trends
- Minnesota Twins – Run Line +1.5 (-175)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+9.75 Units / 88% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 37 games (+4.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- Byron Buxton – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+100/-130)Byron Buxton has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.80 Units / 40% ROI)