Dive Into the Simulation and Insights for D-Backs vs Marlins Match Preview – April 17, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 17, 2025, the stakes are significant for both teams in this National League matchup. The Marlins enter with a disappointing record of 8-9, while the Diamondbacks are enjoying a strong start at 11-7, ranking 2nd in MLB offensively and boasting an impressive team batting average of .295.

In their most recent outing, the Marlins participated in a tightly contested game yesterday, which they narrowly lost. With the Marlins looking to rebound, they are projected to start right-handed pitcher Edward Cabrera, who has had a solid season thus far with a 3.18 ERA despite a high xFIP of 4.64, indicating he may have benefited from some good luck. Cabrera’s struggles with walks (12.5 BB%) could be problematic against a patient Diamondbacks offense that draws the 3rd most walks in MLB.

On the other side, the Diamondbacks will send out Eduardo Rodriguez, a left-hander who has had a rocky season, sporting a 4.86 ERA. However, his xFIP of 2.75 suggests he’s been unlucky, and he projects to improve moving forward. Rodriguez’s ability to generate ground balls (48 GB%) could neutralize the Marlins’ lack of power, as they rank 26th in home runs this season.

Despite the Marlins’ average offensive ranking of 16th in MLB, they are facing an uphill battle against the 2nd-best Diamondbacks lineup. The game total is set at a moderate 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive environment, but the Marlins will need to capitalize on opportunities to make it a close game as they look to turn their season around.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  Eduardo Rodriguez is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #22 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Miami’s #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Eugenio Suarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Arizona Diamondbacks in this game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .312, which is a good deal worse than their actual wOBA of .345 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have 6 bats in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Edward Cabrera today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Kyle Stowers has made notable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 11% rate last season to 21.1% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen profiles as the worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-150)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 91 of their last 162 games (+11.55 Units / 6% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+145/-190)
  Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.30 Units / 34% ROI)