Dive Into the Simulation and Insights for Braves vs Rockies Match Preview – August 10, 2024

Atlanta Braves

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Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on August 10, 2024, at Coors Field, both teams are coming off an intense matchup where the Rockies edged the Braves 6-5. This game marks the second in the series and presents a critical opportunity for the Braves to bounce back against a Rockies team that has struggled throughout the season.

Currently, the Rockies sit at 43-74, putting them well behind in the standings, while the Braves, with a record of 60-55, are aiming to reclaim their footing in the playoff race. The Braves are projected to start Max Fried, who is ranked 10th among MLB pitchers, boasting a solid 3.40 ERA this year. Fried will be looking to improve upon a rough outing in his last start, during which he surrendered five earned runs in just three innings. Despite that setback, his overall performance this season has been impressive.

On the other hand, the Rockies are set to send Dakota Hudson to the mound. Hudson has struggled significantly this year, with a dismal 2-12 record and a 5.84 ERA. His last outing was relatively uneventful, where he allowed three earned runs over five innings. The projections suggest that Hudson, known for high walk rates, will face a Braves offense that has been patient at the plate, potentially playing into his weaknesses.

While the Rockies rank as the 17th best offense overall, they have shown flashes of power, ranking 10th in home runs this season. However, their inconsistency may prove detrimental against a strong Braves lineup led by Marcell Ozuna, who has been a standout with a .298 batting average and 34 home runs this year.

With the Game Total set at a high 10.5 runs, bettors might find value in the Braves as they seek to capitalize on Hudson’s struggles and regain momentum in this crucial series. The projections indicate that the Braves could score around 6.64 runs, while the Rockies are expected to put up approximately 4.93 runs, reflecting the disparity in form and pitching matchup.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)
  Max Fried is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.5% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field — the #4 HR venue in the majors — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Orlando Arcia – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+195/-260)
  Orlando Arcia is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Colorado (#1-best of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Atlanta Braves have been the unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Dakota Hudson – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Dakota Hudson’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (52.1% vs. 39.6% last year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Elias Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Elias Diaz is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.50 Units / 39% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 93 games (+22.45 Units / 22% ROI)
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-150)
  Hunter Goodman has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.90 Units / 34% ROI)