Atlanta Braves
Toronto Blue Jays
(-110/-110)+120
On April 16, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Atlanta Braves at Rogers Centre, marking the third game in this interleague series. Both teams find themselves at opposite ends of the standings, with the Blue Jays boasting a respectable 10-8 record, while the Braves struggle at 5-12. The Blue Jays are coming off a strong performance, notably hitting three home runs in their last game, and they’re eager to build on that momentum.
Toronto is projected to start Chris Bassitt, who, despite being ranked 100th among starting pitchers, has demonstrated outstanding form this season with a stellar 0.98 ERA. However, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a regression, as his xFIP stands at 2.60, indicating that luck has played a part in his success. Bassitt has pitched just three games this season, but he remains a solid option, particularly given his ability to strike out an average of 5.8 batters per outing.
On the other side, Atlanta will counter with Spencer Strider, an elite pitcher ranked 6th overall. Strider has been a bright spot for the Braves, projecting to allow only 2.4 earned runs and to strike out 6.5 batters during his average outings. However, both pitchers have troubling projections in terms of hits allowed, with Bassitt expected to surrender 5.4 hits and Strider 5.0, leading to potential scoring opportunities.
Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 5th in team batting average, but their struggles in home runs (28th) and stolen bases (20th) are concerning. Conversely, the Braves hold average ranks across the board, but their best hitters have shown signs of life recently, with impressive performances in recent games.
With the Blue Jays listed as underdogs with a moneyline of +125, there could be value in taking a shot on them, especially given their current form compared to Atlanta’s struggles. The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating that runs may be at a premium. As this matchup unfolds, it’s clear every run will be crucial, making for an intriguing encounter at Rogers Centre.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)Spencer Strider is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #2 HR venue among all parks in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)Matt Olson has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95-mph average to last season’s 91.3-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Atlanta Braves hitters as a unit grade out 2nd- in baseball for power since the start of last season when judging by their 10.3% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Chris Bassitt has been very fortunate when it comes to his strikeouts since the start of last season, putting up an 8.98 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.33 — a 0.65 K/9 deviation.Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)Typically, batters like Anthony Santander who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Spencer Strider.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-135)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+200/-265)Alejandro Kirk has hit the RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+5.80 Units / 27% ROI)