Atlanta Braves
Toronto Blue Jays
(-110/-110)+110
On April 16, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Atlanta Braves at Rogers Centre for the third game of their interleague series. The Blue Jays are riding a wave of momentum after securing a 6-3 victory over the Braves just a day prior, while Atlanta continues to struggle, having lost their last three games and holding a disappointing record of 5-12 this season.
Toronto’s Chris Bassitt is projected to take the mound, boasting a stellar 0.98 ERA this year, which is indicative of a strong start to the season. However, his xFIP of 2.65 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate, and he could face challenges moving forward. Bassitt’s ability to limit earned runs will be crucial, especially against a Braves lineup that ranks 7th in MLB for home runs. Despite their power, Atlanta’s offense has been inconsistent, currently sitting at 20th in team batting average.
In contrast, Braves’ ace Spencer Strider, ranked 7th among MLB starting pitchers, will aim to rebound from a rough outing where he allowed 5 earned runs in just 4 innings. Strider’s projections show he could strike out 6.5 batters while allowing 2.5 earned runs, which would be a significant improvement if he can execute effectively.
While the Blue Jays rank 13th in overall offense, they excel in batting average, sitting 5th in the league. This combination of solid hitting and Bassitt’s recent form gives Toronto an edge in this matchup, despite the betting markets favoring Atlanta slightly with a moneyline of -135. With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs, bettors should keep an eye on the pitching duel, as it could dictate the game’s outcome.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)Spencer Strider is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #2 HR venue among all parks in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)Matt Olson has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95-mph average to last season’s 91.3-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Atlanta Braves hitters as a unit grade out 2nd- in baseball for power since the start of last season when judging by their 10.3% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Chris Bassitt has been very fortunate when it comes to his strikeouts since the start of last season, putting up an 8.98 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.33 — a 0.65 K/9 deviation.Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Typically, batters like Anthony Santander who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Spencer Strider.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-155)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 away games (+6.75 Units / 103% ROI)