Texas Rangers
San Diego Padres
(-110/-110)-125
On July 5, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Texas Rangers at Petco Park in a pivotal Interleague matchup. The Padres currently sit at 47-40, boasting an above-average season, while the Rangers trail with a 43-45 record, reflecting an average performance. Both teams are looking to gain momentum after their previous encounter, where the Padres edged out the Rangers 3-2 on July 4.
The Padres are projected to send out Stephen Kolek, a right-handed pitcher with a 3-3 record and a commendable 3.73 ERA. However, advanced projections suggest he may have been a bit fortunate this season, as his 4.31 SIERA indicates potential for regression. In his last start on June 29, Kolek delivered a solid performance, allowing just one earned run over six innings.
Opposing him will be Patrick Corbin, a left-handed pitcher who has struggled this season with a 4-7 record and a 4.26 ERA. Corbin’s recent outings have not inspired confidence, and he has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to the advanced-stat Power Rankings. He pitched six innings in his last start on June 30, giving up three earned runs while allowing eight hits.
Offensively, the Padres rank 23rd in MLB, and while their batting average is slightly better at 18th, they have struggled to hit home runs, ranking 27th with only 74 this season. The Rangers, on the other hand, sit at 28th in overall offensive rankings and batting average, but they excel in stolen bases, ranking 5th in MLB.
With a projected Game Total of 8.0 runs, the odds suggest a close contest, but the Padres’ superior bullpen, ranked 5th in MLB, may give them an edge. Given these factors, the Padres could be positioned for a strong showing against the struggling Rangers.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)Adolis Garcia has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.1-mph average to last year’s 91-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- It may be sensible to expect better numbers for the Texas Rangers offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Stephen Kolek – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Stephen Kolek’s 2193-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 24th percentile among all starting pitchers.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Luis Arraez has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 6.8 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is quite a bit higher than his 0.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- San Diego Padres – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-best among all MLB teams.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 75 games (+12.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 82 games (+17.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+165/-215)Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+8.05 Units / 14% ROI)