Dive Into the Head-to-Head Preview: Rangers vs Padres Matchup July 05, 2025

Texas Rangers

@

San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres will host the Texas Rangers on July 5, 2025, in an Interleague showdown at Petco Park. With the Padres currently sitting at 47-40 and the Rangers at 43-45, it’s clear that San Diego is having the stronger season. Both teams played tightly contested games yesterday, with the Padres edging out the Rangers 3-2, continuing their momentum into this matchup.

On the mound, the Padres will send out Stephen Kolek, who has had a solid season with a 3-3 record and a respectable 3.73 ERA over 11 starts. Despite his Power Rankings position at #171 among MLB pitchers, Kolek’s recent performance has been encouraging; in his last outing on June 29, he pitched 6 innings, allowing just 1 earned run while striking out 5 batters. However, his 4.31 SIERA suggests that he may have benefitted from some luck, and he projects to struggle with a high average of 5.6 hits allowed today.

Opposing him, Patrick Corbin takes the mound for the Rangers. Corbin has a less favorable 4-7 record with a 4.26 ERA over 15 starts. While he has shown flashes of effectiveness, he remains classified among the worst in MLB by Power Rankings. His last start on June 30 was decent, allowing 3 earned runs over 6 innings, but he also surrendered 8 hits, which further highlights his inconsistency.

The Padres offense ranks 23rd in MLB, which is concerning. However, they do rank higher than the Rangers, who sit at 28th overall. Given the Padres’ quality bullpen—ranked 5th—combined with Corbin’s flyball tendencies against a lineup lacking in power, San Diego appears well-positioned to secure another win, especially with a favorable moneyline of -140 that points to an implied team total of 4.54 runs for today’s game.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Alejandro Osuna – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Alejandro Osuna has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 89.6-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be sensible to expect better numbers for the Texas Rangers offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Stephen Kolek – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Stephen Kolek’s 2193-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 24th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Luis Arraez has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 6.8 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is quite a bit higher than his 0.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.