Dive Into the Head-to-Head Preview: Phillies vs Cubs Matchup April 25, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Chicago Cubs

On April 25, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Wrigley Field in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. The Cubs enter this game with a solid 16-10 record, showcasing their offensive prowess as they currently rank 1st in MLB in team batting average and 3rd in home runs. In their last outing, the Cubs’ best hitter continued his hot streak, contributing significantly with 7 hits over the last week, including 2 home runs.

The Cubs are projected to start Colin Rea, who has posted an impressive 1.32 ERA this season. However, his 3.39 xFIP suggests he may have benefited from some good fortune, indicating a potential regression. Rea has been a low-walk pitcher, which could play to his advantage against the Phillies’ high-walk offense. Conversely, the Phillies will counter with Taijuan Walker, who has a solid 2.29 ERA but also faces a challenging matchup. His 4.39 xFIP indicates that he, too, may not sustain his current level of performance.

Offensively, the Cubs have the edge, ranking 1st in MLB, while the Phillies sit at 8th. However, the Phillies struggle with power, ranking 22nd in home runs, which could hinder their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities. The projections favor the Cubs, who are expected to leverage their strong offense against Walker’s high walk rate, potentially allowing them to draw more free passes.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, betting markets indicate a competitive matchup, with the Cubs holding a moneyline of -135. Given their offensive capabilities and Rea’s recent form, the Cubs appear well-positioned to secure a victory in this early-season showdown.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Taijuan Walker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Taijuan Walker’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (67.8% compared to 59.8% last year) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  In the last week, Nick Castellanos’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.7% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-135)
  The Chicago Cubs infield defense projects as the 3rd-best among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Carson Kelly has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.7-mph average to last year’s 91.4-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Kyle Tucker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.5% — 84th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 24 games (+13.75 Units / 48% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.70 Units / 33% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-165)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+17.30 Units / 87% ROI)