Seattle Mariners
Athletics
(-110/-110)-110
The Oakland Athletics will host the Seattle Mariners on July 29, 2025, in what is the second game of their series. The Athletics sit at the bottom of the American League West with a 46-63 record this season, while the Mariners have an above-average 57-50 record, positioning them in a competitive stance. The Athletics’ struggles have been evident, and they are projected to start Luis Severino, who’s been having a tough season. Severino’s 4-11 record and 4.95 ERA underscore his challenges, although his 4.21 FIP hints at some bad luck.
In contrast, the Mariners will counter with Logan Evans, who has a 4-3 record and a commendable 3.64 ERA. However, projections suggest that Evans might be due for regression, indicated by his higher xFIP of 4.64. This matchup sets the stage for a conflict between a strong Mariners offense, which ranks 5th in home runs and holds the 10th best overall ranking in MLB, against an Athletics lineup known for its power, ranking 7th in home runs.
Despite their recent struggles, the Athletics’ offense has the potential to shine, boasting a Power Ranking that places them 8th overall, underscoring their underlying talent. In their last game, the Athletics managed to leverage their strong offensive performance, but it remains to be seen if they can maintain that momentum against a Mariners squad that has been inconsistent on the mound.
With both teams sharing an implied team total of 5.25 runs, this matchup is expected to be competitive. Bettors should keep an eye on how Severino’s low strikeout percentage plays into the high-strikeout nature of the Mariners’ offense, which could tilt the game in favor of the Athletics if the batting lineup can capitalize on pitching mistakes.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Logan Evans – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Logan Evans’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (75.1% this year) should work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Logan Evans – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Athletics Insights
- Athletics – Moneyline (-110)Among every team playing today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Athletics.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brent Rooker in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 103 games (+7.25 Units / 6% ROI)
- Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 99 games (+10.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+440/-700)Julio Rodriguez has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+31.10 Units / 389% ROI)