Dive Into the Head-to-Head Preview: Blue Jays vs Marlins Matchup August 23, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to face off against the Toronto Blue Jays on August 23, 2025, the stakes are clear. The Marlins, with a record of 60-68, have been struggling this season and are not in playoff contention. Conversely, the Blue Jays are enjoying a strong campaign at 75-54, currently battling for a favorable playoff position.

In their previous matchup, the Blue Jays emerged victorious over the Marlins with a score of 5-2, continuing their impressive form. The Marlins will look to Janson Junk on the mound, who has a 6-2 record and a respectable 4.04 ERA this season. However, his advanced stats suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, with a FIP of 3.05 indicating potential for improved performance. Junk’s low strikeout rate (17.5 K%) may not serve him well against the Blue Jays, who are known for their contact-heavy approach, ranking as the 1st least strikeout-prone offense in the league.

On the other side, Jose Berrios takes the hill for Toronto. Despite a mixed season, his 4.00 ERA is solid, but his projections hint at potential regression, as he has been fortunate with a higher xERA of 4.68. Berrios struggled in his last outing, allowing 6 earned runs over just 4 innings, which raises questions about his current form.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 3rd in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs, while the Marlins sit at 19th, indicating a stark contrast in offensive output. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, the Marlins will need a strong performance from their bats to challenge a potent Blue Jays lineup. Given the current odds, the Marlins are underdogs with a moneyline of +120, but they will look to leverage their home field advantage at LoanDepot Park to turn the tide in this series.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Jose Berrios has added a slider to his arsenal this season and has used it 26.5% of the time.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Daulton Varsho has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.7-mph average to last season’s 91.1-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.4% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+125)
  Among every team today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Miami Marlins.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Javier Sanoja – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Javier Sanoja has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .238 rate is a good deal lower than his .288 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 96 games (+14.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-145)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 95 games (+18.84 Units / 15% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 25 games at home (+9.55 Units / 36% ROI)