Dive Into Player Props Analysis for White Sox vs Athletics – Friday April 25, 2025

Chicago White Sox

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Athletics

The Oakland Athletics and the Chicago White Sox will meet for the first game of their series on April 25, 2025, at Sutter Health Park. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Athletics sitting at 12-13 and the White Sox at a dismal 6-19. The Athletics are projected as the favorites, thanks in part to their powerful offense, which ranks 4th in MLB. In contrast, the White Sox offense is at the bottom, ranked 30th, as they have found it challenging to generate runs consistently.

Oakland’s projected starter, Luis Severino, has had a rough start with a 1-3 record, but his 3.31 ERA indicates he has been somewhat effective. The advanced projections suggest he is likely to pitch around 6.1 innings while allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs. Severino benefits from facing a struggling White Sox lineup that ranks 30th in team batting average. Moreover, with Severino’s ability to limit walks and the Athletics’ low strikeout rate, this matchup appears favorable for Oakland.

On the other hand, Chicago’s Sean Burke is also projected to pitch 5.0 innings, but with a troubling 6.23 ERA. His struggles could amplify against the Athletics’ powerful lineup, which has already hit 35 home runs this season. Burke’s high flyball rate and low strikeout percentage may turn his pitches into home runs for Oakland’s hitters, further aiding their offensive output.

With the Athletics holding a significant edge in both pitching and batting, they are positioned to capitalize on the White Sox’s vulnerabilities. As a result, the projections favor a substantial win for Oakland, making them a solid bet for those looking to wager on this matchup.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)
  Sean Burke is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #8 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Matt Thaiss – Over/Under Total Bases
  Matt Thaiss’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 86.9-mph seasonal average has fallen to 72.1-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Athletics Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Luis Severino’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (46.3% compared to 39.7% last season) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Brent Rooker generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Sean Burke.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Brent Rooker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 11th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.15 Units / 43% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.95 Units / 41% ROI)
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Lawrence Butler has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+11.70 Units / 22% ROI)