Dive Into Player Props Analysis for White Sox vs Athletics – Friday April 25, 2025

Chicago White Sox

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Athletics

The Oakland Athletics will host the Chicago White Sox on April 25, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Athletics sitting at 12-13 and the White Sox at a dismal 6-19. However, after a narrow victory over the White Sox in their last game on April 24, where the Athletics won 4-3, they will look to build on that momentum.

Oakland’s Luis Severino is projected to take the mound, coming off an impressive complete game where he allowed just one earned run against the Seattle Mariners on April 19. Despite his low overall ranking as the 198th best starting pitcher in MLB, Severino has shown flashes of brilliance, boasting a solid 3.31 ERA this season. The projections suggest he will pitch effectively today, averaging 6.0 innings and allowing 2.8 earned runs, although he may struggle with walks, projected at 1.9.

On the other side, the White Sox will counter with Sean Burke, who has also struggled this season with a 6.23 ERA. While Burke has the potential to improve, as indicated by his 5.42 xFIP, he faces a daunting task against an Athletics offense ranked 4th best in MLB. The Athletics’ ability to hit home runs—ranking 5th with 35 long balls—could pose significant challenges for Burke, who is a high-flyball pitcher.

With the Athletics being favored with a moneyline of -250, they carry an implied team total of 5.77 runs, reflecting confidence in their offense against a struggling White Sox squad. As both teams look to turn their seasons around, this matchup offers an intriguing dynamic, particularly with the Athletics’ offensive prowess against a vulnerable White Sox pitching staff.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)
  Sean Burke is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #8 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Matt Thaiss – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Matt Thaiss’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 86.9-mph seasonal average has fallen to 72.1-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Athletics Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Luis Severino’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (46.3% compared to 39.7% last season) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Brent Rooker generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Sean Burke.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Brent Rooker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 11th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+110)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.15 Units / 43% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.95 Units / 41% ROI)
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-105/-125)
  JJ Bleday has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+10.50 Units / 27% ROI)