Dive Into Player Props Analysis for Pirates vs Reds – Friday September 20, 2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds and the Pittsburgh Pirates square off on September 20, 2024, at Great American Ball Park in a matchup of National League Central teams that have struggled this season. The Reds hold a slight edge with a 74-80 record, while the Pirates sit at 72-81. Despite both teams’ below-average seasons, the Reds have a minor edge, with a 54% win probability according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, compared to a 53% implied win probability.

Nick Martinez will take the mound for the Reds, bringing a strong 3.37 ERA, albeit with an xFIP of 4.01 suggesting potential regression. Nonetheless, his ability to induce flyballs could play well against a power-deficient Pirates lineup, which ranks 26th in home runs. Pittsburgh counters with Mitch Keller, whose 3.87 ERA is solid, but his projections for today’s game are less favorable, with a high expected number of hits and walks allowed.

Offensively, the Reds sit in the middle of the pack, ranking 16th in both overall offense and home runs. Their strength is highlighted by their ability to steal bases, ranking 2nd in MLB. Meanwhile, the Pirates have struggled mightily, boasting the 28th-ranked offense and lacking power, as evidenced by their 26th-place home run ranking.

In recent games, TJ Friedl has been hot for Cincinnati, boasting a .474 batting average and two homers in his last five games. For Pittsburgh, Michael A. Taylor has been on a tear, hitting .500 over the last week, yet the Pirates’ offense remains a concern.

While the Reds’ bullpen is ranked 24th, the Pirates have a slightly better relief corps at 18th. With both teams not contending for the playoffs, this matchup offers an opportunity for individual players to shine and for bettors to capitalize on the Reds’ slight edge.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Mitch Keller’s 2408-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 79th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Oneil Cruz has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.5-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 95.4-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Rowdy Tellez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 91st percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 11th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Martinez – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Martinez to throw 83 pitches today (13th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  As it relates to his home runs, TJ Friedl has had positive variance on his side this year. His 25.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 14.8.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Will Benson, Noelvi Marte, Elly De La Cruz).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 73 games at home (+14.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-185)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 63 of their last 115 games (+7.92 Units / 5% ROI)
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+420/-660)
  Joey Bart has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 30 games (+17.50 Units / 58% ROI)