Dive Into Player Props Analysis for Orioles vs Twins – Tuesday May 06, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Minnesota Twins

On May 6, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Baltimore Orioles at Target Field in the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Twins at 15-20 and the Orioles at 13-20, sitting 4th in the American League East and 3rd in the American League Central, respectively. This matchup features a pair of pitchers with contrasting trajectories; while the Twins’ Pablo Lopez has shown competence, the Orioles’ Cade Povich has struggled considerably.

In his last outing, Lopez performed well enough to secure a win, bringing his record this season to 2-2 with a commendable 2.25 ERA. The advanced-stat Power Rankings list him as the 28th best starting pitcher out of around 350, indicating a strong performance. His xFIP of 3.16 suggests a bit of luck, but he still projects to handle the Orioles, who rank among the worst in MLB for plate discipline.

Conversely, Povich has not been as fortunate, with a 5.16 ERA and a record of 1-2, ranking him among the least effective pitchers in the league according to the projections. His recent performances include an alarming amount of walks and hits allowed, which does not bode well against a struggling Twins offense that, despite being ranked 22nd overall, has shown some signs of life recently.

The Twins are currently favored with a moneyline of -155, suggesting an implied total of 4.66 runs, while the Orioles trail as underdogs with an average implied total of 3.84 runs. Although both teams have room for improvement, the projections favor the Twins to turn their season around with Lopez on the mound. This contest presents a key opportunity for Minnesota to gain some momentum amidst a tough start to the year.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Cade Povich projects for an average of 3.03 earned runs today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Extreme groundball bats like Cedric Mullins are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Pablo Lopez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be smart to expect stronger performance for the Baltimore Orioles offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 5th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  With 6 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Pablo Lopez will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Ryan Jeffers is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen projects as the 9th-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.79 Units / 35% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 25 games (+6.75 Units / 25% ROI)
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Harrison Bader has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games (+8.80 Units / 80% ROI)