Dive Into Player Props Analysis for D-Backs vs Yankees – Tuesday April 01, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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New York Yankees

On April 1, 2025, the New York Yankees host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Yankee Stadium in the first game of a series. The Yankees currently sit at the top of the American League East with a perfect 3-0 record this season, showcasing their strong start. In contrast, the Diamondbacks are at an average 2-2, ranking 3rd in the National League West.

In their last outings, the Yankees secured a dominant 12-3 victory against their opponents on March 30, while the Diamondbacks managed to win 10-6 in their previous game. The Yankees’ offense has been nothing short of spectacular, ranking 1st in MLB in both team batting average and home runs. Their best hitter has been on fire, boasting a .545 batting average and 4 home runs already this season.

On the mound, the Yankees are projected to start Will Warren, who has struggled in his last appearance, allowing 4 earned runs in just 4 innings. His overall ranking as the 180th best starting pitcher in MLB reflects his difficulties, particularly as he projects to allow an above-average 2.3 earned runs today. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks will counter with Corbin Burnes, who has been impressive, ranking 37th among starting pitchers. Burnes pitched 8 innings with just 1 earned run in his last start, and he projects to allow only 2.2 earned runs today.

Despite the Yankees’ strong offensive performance, the betting markets have set the Yankees’ moneyline at +105, suggesting they could face a challenge against a capable Diamondbacks team. The projections indicate a close matchup, with the Yankees expected to average 4.10 runs and the Diamondbacks 4.40 runs. As these two teams clash, it will be intriguing to see if New York can leverage their offensive prowess against Burnes, who poses a significant test for the Yankees’ lineup.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Corbin Burnes’s fastball velocity over his last 3 GS (93.5 mph) has been quite a bit slower than than his seasonal rate (94.7 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  New York’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Eugenio Suarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Arizona’s 89.1-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the best in the game: #10 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Will Warren to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 82 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Since the start of last season, Aaron Judge’s 27.1% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 100th percentile among his peers.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls a lot of his flyballs (35% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 73 games at home (+15.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 116 games (+27.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Pavin Smith has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.65 Units / 45% ROI)