Dive Into Player Props Analysis for D-Backs vs Rockies – Saturday August 16, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Colorado Rockies

On August 16, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field in what marks the third game of their series. The Rockies sit at 33-89 this season, struggling to find any rhythm, while the Diamondbacks are at a more respectable 60-63, finding themselves in the middle of the pack. Last night, the Diamondbacks topped the Rockies, continuing their push for a better position in the standings.

Chase Dollander is projected to take the mound for Colorado. Though he has shown flashes of potential, Dollander’s season has been plagued by inconsistency, as evidenced by his 2-9 record and a troubling ERA of 6.35. His advanced metrics indicate he might be due for some positive regression, but with a high walk rate of 10.8% and facing a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 4th in MLB for drawing walks, he could be in for a tough outing. Dollander is expected to pitch around 4.6 innings, allowing an average of 3.3 earned runs, which spells trouble for a Rockies team that ranks 25th in overall offense.

On the flip side, Ryne Nelson is projected to start for Arizona. With a solid 6-3 record and an impressive ERA of 3.46, Nelson has proven to be a reliable option, although his underlying projections suggest he could regress slightly. He’s expected to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing approximately 3.4 earned runs.

The Rockies’ offense has been lackluster, ranking 25th in runs scored, while the Diamondbacks boast the 3rd best offense in the league, particularly excelling in home runs. Given these disparities, the Rockies are significant underdogs in this matchup, with a high implied team total of 4.93 runs against the Diamondbacks’ lofty 6.57 runs. With the Rockies’ pitching woes and an explosive Diamondbacks lineup, this game could see plenty of runs, making it a compelling matchup for bettors.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ryne Nelson is expected to wring up 5 strikeouts in today’s outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Alek Thomas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alek Thomas can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Arizona Diamondbacks hitters jointly place 10th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 9.3% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Chase Dollander – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Chase Dollander has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 57.6% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Mickey Moniak is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#2-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Colorado Rockies offense projects to score the 3rd-most runs of all teams on the slate, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 86 games (+9.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-175)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 56 of their last 102 games (+17.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+305/-440)
  Hunter Goodman has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+9.40 Units / 157% ROI)