Dive Into Player Props Analysis for D-Backs vs Angels – Saturday July 12, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Los Angeles Angels

On July 12, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Angel Stadium in what promises to be an exciting Interleague matchup. Both teams are in the midst of average to below-average seasons, with the Angels holding a record of 46-48, while the Diamondbacks sit at 46-49. Notably, the Angels are coming off a strong performance where their pitcher recently threw a complete game shutout, showcasing their potential despite their overall struggles.

The matchup on the mound features Yusei Kikuchi for the Angels and Zac Gallen for the Diamondbacks. Kikuchi, ranked as the 94th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has had an up-and-down season with a 3-6 record and a solid 3.02 ERA. However, his 4.08 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky, indicating potential regression. He projects to pitch 5.7 innings and allow around 2.9 earned runs, but his high walk rate (10.5 BB%) could be a concern against a patient Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 3rd in walks drawn.

Gallen, on the other hand, has been more effective this season, ranking 75th among starters with a 7-9 record and a 5.15 ERA. His projections indicate he may fare better today, allowing 3.0 earned runs over 5.5 innings, as he has been slightly unlucky this year. The Diamondbacks’ offense ranks 4th in MLB, showcasing their power with 139 home runs, which could pose a significant challenge for Kikuchi.

As for the Angels, their offense ranks 22nd overall, but they are capable of generating power, sitting 5th in home runs with 138 this season. With both teams struggling in the bullpen—ranked 28th and 27th respectively—this game could hinge on the starting pitchers’ performances. The current game total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive matchup. The Angels and Diamondbacks are both at -110 on the moneyline, indicating a closely contested game ahead.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Given his reverse platoon split, Zac Gallen encounters a tough challenge going up against 6 bats in the projected batting order of the same handedness today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Randal Grichuk – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
  Randal Grichuk has paced 0 steals per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 0th percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Yusei Kikuchi’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.5 mph this year (94.1 mph) below where it was last year (95.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Schanuel in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (-120)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 64 games (+13.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 69 games (+11.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• James McCann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  James McCann has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.20 Units / 23% ROI)