Dive Into Player Props Analysis for D-Backs vs Angels – Saturday July 12, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angels and the Arizona Diamondbacks meet for the second game of their interleague series on July 12, 2025, at Angel Stadium. Both teams find themselves in a tight race, with the Angels holding a record of 46-48, while the Diamondbacks are slightly behind at 46-49. Despite their struggles, the Angels recently secured a narrow victory over the D-Backs, winning 6-5 on July 11.

On the mound, Yusei Kikuchi is set to start for the Angels. Despite his average season, with a 3-6 record and a solid ERA of 3.02, Kikuchi’s advanced stats suggest he may have been fortunate, as his xFIP stands at 4.08. He projects to pitch about 5.7 innings today, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs, but he has struggled with control, evident from his high walk rate of 10.5%. Facing a powerful D-Backs lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB with 139 home runs this season could pose a challenge for Kikuchi.

Zac Gallen will take the mound for Arizona, looking to improve on his 7-9 record and a less-than-ideal ERA of 5.15. Gallen’s advanced metrics indicate he may have been unlucky this season, and he projects to allow 2.9 earned runs over approximately 5.4 innings. With a strikeout rate of 5.7 batters, he could be a tough matchup for the Angels, who rank 17th in offense overall.

As the Angels’ offense ranks 5th in home runs but struggles with a 26th ranking in batting average, they will need to capitalize on Gallen’s flyball tendencies. The Game Total is set at a high 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair. With the Angels currently favored at -125, they will look to build on their recent victory and take advantage of their home-field advantage.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Given his reverse platoon split, Zac Gallen encounters a tough challenge going up against 6 bats in the projected batting order of the same handedness today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Randal Grichuk – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-170)
  Randal Grichuk has paced 0 steals per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 0th percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Yusei Kikuchi’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.5 mph this year (94.1 mph) below where it was last year (95.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Schanuel in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (-130)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 64 games (+13.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 69 games (+11.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-115/-115)
  Zach Neto has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.25 Units / 69% ROI)